A Technical and Economic Feasibility Study for on-Grid Solar PV in Libya

During the past years, the construction of residential schemes and the population increase has led to an increase in energy consumption and frequent blackouts. Power generation in Libya depends on fossil fuel sources (natural gas and crude oil) [1] where reports indicate that fossil fuels and petroleum raw materials are in constant decline over the years and will soon be depleted [2, 3]. Power plants in Libya depend heavily on fossil fuels, which are a major problem for greenhouse emissions such as carbon dioxide and nitrate oxides. Sulfur oxides are particles that affect the environment and human health. One of the best solutions to overcome the problem of increasing demand for electricity is the use of solar energy [4]. The average annual solar radiation in Libya is 250 kW/m² and hence, Libya has great potential for solar energy. It is also characterized by long hours of average sunshine of about 8 hours per day, large areas of land, and an atmosphere free of clouds [5]. These capabilities make Libya an encouraging medium for the use of solar PV systems, as can be seen in Table 1 the potential of solar energy in Libya [6, 7].

Table 1. Solar energy potential in Libya computed using SOLARGIS

Several feasibility studies have been conducted in recent years, stating that solar PV systems are cost-effective [8, 9]. The overview of some of the researchers who examined the technological and economic viability of a grid-connected PV system worldwide can be seen in Table 2. From the studies, we may conclude that, particularly for a grid-connected system, grid-connected PV systems are technically feasible and economically successful. In recent years, there have been several feasibility studies stating that solar PV systems are cost effective [8, 9]. Researchers have looked at the technology and financial viability of a grid-connected PV system for various regions of the world. An economic evaluation of a grid-connected PV system was done for a facility in South Korea for a number of configurations, taking into account system components and network connectivity. The grid-only system is the option that is least economically feasible, according to the analysis [10]. Examine the PV system that is connected to the network for the usage of HOMER economic analysis and the various Makkah tracking systems. They found that the axis tracker system with continuous adjustment offers the least value for NPC and the highest COE [11]. Using HOMER, a study was conducted to determine the technical and financial viability of a linked PV system to produce electricity for a location in Nigeria where the system's initial cost was a significant factor in the electricity tariff [12]. A PV system is a smart approach to lower electricity costs and greenhouse gas emissions, according to research done in Australia on an apartment building [13]. He investigated the technical and financial viability of a grid-connected PV system for 35 sites in Ethiopia, each with a 5 MW PV capacity. It has the capacity to produce 7,658 MW of energy and could prevent 1,089 tons of greenhouse gas emissions every year [14].

Table 2. The summary of the PV system economic feasibility research that has been conducted worldwide

Over the coming decades, while fossil fuel prices are unstable, photovoltaic price is predicted to decline [15], which will further encourage PV implementation in wider scale. The purpose of the reference [16] is to develop a database for wind sources in Libya and analyze the potential of wind energy as a source of power. The findings used for this study are based on monthly data for the four-year period from 2017 to 2020. The highest energy density was 148.65 W/m² in May, as well as 142.34 W/m² in Derna and Tobruk. The Ajdabiya websites in Benghazi have the lowest month-to-month average wind speeds, with 3.7 and 4.5 m/s respectively. Large wind turbines provide more electricity than small windmills. Libya is investing in traditional power plant construction, but the ecological effects of power generating would increase if fossil fuels were used [17]. To address this, a grid-connected solar PV-wind hybrid energy system with a mean daily public load demand of 12,000 kWh and a maximum daily demand of 20,000 kWh has been planned. Simulation results showed the system has the lowest Net Present Cost (NPC) and Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE), the highest amount of available total energy, and the lowest emissions of CO₂.

The purpose of this paper is to develop a database of solar energy sources in Libya and analyze the potential of solar energy as an energy source. Libya invests in building traditional power plants, but the environmental impacts of power generation will increase if fossil fuels are used, with a shortage in the production of electric power [17]. To address this matter, a solar photovoltaic system connected to the grid was planned, as this system is not applied in the State of Libya and lacks previous practical and theoretical studies, compared to a system separated from the grid.

The increasing energy demand in Libya negatively affects oil and gas exports. This paper is aiming to investigate the technical and economic feasibility analysis of a grid-connected solar PV system, where the design was proposed for a residential house for six Libyan cities. The selected sites include the east, west, central, and south regions of Libya are Al-Marj, AlKufra, Sirte, Benghazi, Tripoli, Murzuq.

3.1 Energy produced

The analysis from HOMER (see Figure 5) shows that the total monthly electricity production during the first year ranged between 2.1 MW and 1.5 MW find that the energy production in the fall season (November and December) and the winter season (January and February) is low due to the clouds cover, and short periods of sunshine. In the summer and winter seasons, the energy produced from the photovoltaic system is insufficient to meet the energy demand, due to the excessive loads of air conditioners and heating devices. As a result, clients will be reimbursed in line with mutual agreements with the public network after the PV energy is transmitted into the distribution network. The discrepancy between the proposed PV system's monthly output and residential use is depicted in Figure 5.

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Figure 5. Monthly PV system production and load demand

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Figure 6. Monthly capacity factor

In most of the six cities, the system has an annual output of 2000 kWh/kWp, and it operates for 2,000 hours to supply the generated energy. As shown in Figure 6, the monthly capacity factor (CF) for this design is 21% which is considered as a reasonable value compared to studies in Saudi Arabia, Oman, and Kuwait 115 [21-23].

3.2 The economic costs of the system

The capital cost of the project as well as the cost of operation and maintenance determine the economic costs of a grid-connected residential PV system. Based on the International Renewable Energy Agency's (IRENA) guidelines, the system and installation prices were authorized [24] and compared to the prices in the Libyan market. The cost of the system is approximately \$9,570. There is no operational cost for the PV system, as the maintenance costs are minimal for removing dust on the surface of the PV module. The cost of operation and maintenance is estimated at US $20 / kWh. Since the system is home and consists of 32 solar panels, therefore, it does not need a lot of cleaning and maintenance. In most solar systems, it is necessary to change batteries only, this system is connected to the network and does not need storage, and the life of the panels exceeds 25 years [25].

Table 4 shows the costs of the grid-connected PV system and the main financial inputs.

3.3 The grid-connected PV system

The production of electrical energy in this system depends on the electricity demand through the electricity produced by the PV arrays and the grid, and this depends on the intensity of radiation and the effect of temperature. From the results of the feasible improvement of this type of system listed in Table 5 and Table 6, we note that AlKufra, NPC, and COE are the least because this site also contains the lowest operating cost, which makes it the most economical city among the cities and the rest of the sites for this system. Tripoli also has the highest NPC and COE among the other six cities. The highest emissions were CO₂ emissions in Tripoli and the lowest in AlKufra in terms of environmental pollution (CO₂, NOx SO₂) in the grid + PV formation.

Table 4. Financial cost for the PV system

Table 5. The environmental and economic feasibility of a grid-connected PV system

Table 6. Electricity produced and consumed from the grid and the PV system at the six sites

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Figure 7. PV penetration impact on CO₂ emissions

The maximum annual generation capacity obtained through network purchase was in AlKufra and Tripoli, which accounts for approximately 92% of the total power output from the system. The effect of photoelectric penetration on CO₂ emissions of the grid-connected PV system can be observed in all six cities as shown in Figure 7. The system components include a PV panel with sizes of 6 kW, 12 kW, 15 kW, 20 kW. Whereas, as PV penetration increases, the cost of PV + grid assemblies increase while CO₂ emissions for all sites increase. By comparing the cases for all sites, we find that the system of 6 to 10 KW of photovoltaic arrays is the lowest cost and the lowest percentage of emissions.

• Variability of solar power output: The amount of power generated by solar systems varies depending on the time of day, season, and weather conditions. This variability can cause instability on the grid and make it difficult to balance energy supply and demand.

• Technical compatibility issues: Solar systems must be technically compatible with the electrical grid to ensure that they can operate safely and effectively. This can require additional equipment and engineering expertise to ensure that the systems are properly connected and integrated.

• Grid capacity constraints: The electrical grid has a limited capacity to absorb power from solar systems, which can limit the amount of solar power that can be integrated into the grid.
• Grid stability and security: Integrating solar systems into the electrical grid can affect the stability and security of the grid, particularly if there are issues with voltage regulation, control, and protection.

• Regulatory and policy challenges: The integration of solar systems into the electrical grid can be subject to regulatory and policy challenges, such as interconnection requirements, net metering policies, and incentives for distributed generation.

Addressing these challenges requires careful planning, technical expertise, and effective policies and regulations. Solutions may include better forecasting of solar power output, advanced grid management technologies, grid upgrades, and new policy incentives to encourage the integration of solar systems into the electrical grid [26, 27].