Public Views on the Importance and Expansion of Renewable Electricity Production over the Last 35 Years in Idaho, USA

The survey methodology was designed to compare resident responses over time so that useful information about renewable electricity attitudes could be evaluated. Using the mail-based Dillman survey methodology, response rates of 50.9, 52.1, 51.6, 53.4, 50.4, 52.1, 54.4 and 53.3% were achieved for the surveys conducted in 1987, 1992, 1997, 2002, 2007, 2012, 2017 and 2022, respectively. The goal of greater than a 50% response rate was achieved for all surveys, resulting in a sampling error of less than 5%.

When this survey was first initiated in 1987 the population of Idaho was approximately 980,000 [16]. However, by 2022, Idaho’s population had grown to over 1,940,000. This 98% population increase resulted in Idaho becoming more urban and more concentrated in communities with more than 40,000 people over the 35-year study period.

There were several instances in this survey study where the demographic factors of gender, age, education level, community size and geographical region in Idaho impacted respondent answers. These instances will be discussed in the following sections.

3.1 Renewable and non-renewable electricity sources

A substantial majority of Idaho residents correctly labeled wind, solar, geothermal and hydroelectric as being renewable electricity sources (Table 1). The percentage of the public that identified wind, solar and geothermal as renewable electricity sources increased between 1987 and 2022. Although a vast majority of Idahoans felt that hydroelectric was a renewable energy source, the percentage agreement fell from 93 to 84% over the 35-year study. This may be the result of publicity about dam removals in the northwestern part of the USA to improve fisheries. Although biomass and tidal energy are widely regarded as renewable energy resources less than a majority of survey respondents recognized these facts. A clear majority of Idahoans recognized that nuclear, natural gas, oil and coal were non-renewable energy resources. Based on the information presented in Table 1 the public had an excellent grasp of renewable and non-renewable energy resources.

The demographic factors of age and education level impacted responses to this survey question. Respondents younger than 40 years old were more likely to recognize nuclear, coal, oil and gas as being non-renewable energy sources than older Idahoans. Residents with two or more years of college were more likely to correctly place energy sources as renewable and non-renewable than residents with less formal education.

Table 1. The Idaho public’s understanding of renewable and non-renewable electricity sources based on surveys conducted in 1987, 1992, 1997, 2002, 2007, 2012, 2017 and 2022

NS = not significant; **, *** and **** = significant at the 95, 99 and 99.9% level of probability, respectively.

3.2 Importance of energy sources in Idaho

Over 70% of survey respondents in all survey years indicated that hydroelectric was the major source of electricity in Idaho (Table 2). The survey respondents were correct in their belief. No other one energy source was listed by more than 9% of survey respondents in any of the eight survey years. The hydroelectric response peaked at 83% in 1992, but declined to 70% by 2022. This recent downward trend may be due to recent media attention to both solar and wind energy. In recent years the percentage of survey respondents identifying solar or wind as the most important source of electricity in the state has significantly increased since 1987; however, responses peaked at 7% for both energy sources in 2022. Survey year had minimal impact on the selection of dominant electricity source in Idaho.

The demographic factors of gender, age, education level and community size impacted answers about Idaho’s most important energy source (Table 3). Females were more likely than males to say that hydropower was the major source of electricity in Idaho. Residents older than 60 years old were most likely to choose hydropower as Idaho’s main energy source, while residents younger than 35 were least likely to identify hydropower as the major electricity source. Residents with at least two years of college were most likely to choose hydropower while those with less than 12 years of schooling were least likely to choose hydropower. Idaho residents of communities smaller than 7,500 were most likely to choose hydropower, while residents living in communities of greater than 40,000 people were least likely to choose hydropower as Idaho’s main electricity source.

Table 2. The public views of the most important electricity sources in Idaho based on surveys conducted in 1987, 1992, 1997, 2002, 2007, 2012, 2017 and 2022

NS = not significant; **, *** and **** = significant at the 95, 99 and 99.9% level of probability, respectively.

Table 3. The impact of demographic factors on Idahoan choice of the most important electricity source based on surveys conducted in 1987, 1992, 1997, 2002, 2007, 2012, 2017 and 2022

** and *** = significant at the 95, and 99% levels of probability, respectively.

3.3 Reliance on renewable electricity resources

Based on the previous discussion most Idahoans know the difference between renewable and non-renewable electricity resources. When asked about the percentage of electricity that was derived from renewable energy resources, a majority of survey respondents felt that at least 60% of Idaho’s electricity was generated by renewable sources (75 to 90% and >90% answers pooled) in every survey year (Table 4). This value exceeded 70% in 1987, 1992 and 1997, but declined to approximately 60% by 2007, 2012, 2017 and 2022. The decline from 70%+ to 60% over the course of the survey period was probably due to power companies indicating that they were buying additional power on the grid due to the large population increase, particularly in southwestern Idaho.

Table 4. The percentage of electricity production in Idaho that the general public considered renewable in 1987, 1992, 1997, 2002, 2007, 2012, 2017 and 2022

NS = not significant; **, *** and **** = significant at the 95, 99 and 99.9% level of probability, respectively.

Table 5. The general public feels that a realistic share of Idaho’s electricity production should be renewable based on survey results in 1987, 1992, 1997, 2002, 2007, 2012, 2017 and 2022

NS = not significant; **, *** and **** = significant at the 95, 99 and 99.9% level of probability, respectively.

Table 6. The importance of using renewable electricity in Idaho in the next 20 years based on survey results in 1987, 1992, 1997, 2002, 2007, 2012, 2017 and 2022

NS = not significant; **, *** and **** = significant at the 95, 99 and 99.9% level of probability, respectively.

Well over 90% of Idahoans felt that a realistic share of Idaho’s electricity production should be above 50% renewable (Table 5). This trend was consistent over the 35-year survey period. The percentage of survey respondents that did not think that renewable energy would be important in the next 20-year period declined from 21% in 1987 to 11% in 2022. Conversely, the percentage of Idahoans that thought that renewable electricity would be important (very important + important responses) increased from 73% in 1987 to 86% in 2022 (Table 6).

The demographic factors of gender, age, education level and community size impacted how Idahoans viewed the proportion of renewable electricity over the last 35 years and projected over the next 20 years (data not shown). Females were more likely than males to view renewable electricity sources in Idaho as important over the last 35 years and projecting into the next 20 years. Younger Idaho residents were also more likely to say that renewable energy resources were more important in the past and will be in the future than people older than 50 years of age.

Idahoans with 2+ years of college were more likely to say that using renewable electricity sources 20 years into the future was very important compared to respondents with less formal education. Residents of cities with more than 40,000 people thought that Idaho’s share of electricity produced by renewables since 1987 was less than what the more rural residents thought. However, in the next 20 years the more urban residents were more likely to consider renewable electricity more important than rural residents.

3.4 Renewable energy in Idaho’s future

Idahoans believe that wind and solar will become more important as electricity sources in the next 20 years (Table 7). Wind energy has become more popular over the duration of the 35-year survey study as 26% of survey respondents in 1987 believed that wind would become a more important source of electricity. However, by 2022, 49% of the public felt that wind had a more important future over the next 20-year period. A similar trend was observed for solar as 21% of Idahoans predicted in 1987 that solar would become important over time. This percentage increased to 43% of respondents in the 2022 survey.

The percentage of respondents that felt that geothermal would become more important in the future increased from 6% in 1992 to 12% in 2012 and 2017 (Table 7). Even though this trend response for geothermal was positive during the survey period, enthusiasm for it was much lower than for solar or wind generated electricity. The potential future expansion of hydroelectric in Idaho was largely ignored by Idahoans because it has low potential for future expansion because new potential dam sites are limited and there is the potential of removing some existing dams for the improvement of fish habitat in Idaho’s rivers.

The potential expansion of non-renewable energy sources including natural gas, oil and coal was ignored by Idahoans. There is no future for tidal energy because Idaho does not have a seacoast. Although not currently considered renewable, nuclear energy, because it does not produce carbon emissions, showed some popularity with survey respondents (Table 7). Idaho does have a history of nuclear power research because a large national energy laboratory is located in the state; however, this is unlikely to translate into supplemental nuclear power production in the next 20 years.

Table 7. Electricity sources that will become more important in the next 20 years in Idaho based on surveys conducted in 1987, 1992, 1997, 2002, 2007, 2012, 2017 and 2022

Non-renewable energy sources that averaged less than 10% are not included in this table. NS = not significant; **, *** and **** = significant at the 95, 99 and 99.9% level of probability, respectively.

Table 8. Electricity source that should be heavily relied upon to become significantly more dominant in Idaho in the next 20 years based on surveys conducted in 1987, 1992, 1997, 2002, 2007, 2012, 2017 and 202

NS = not significant; **, *** and **** = significant at the 95, 99 and 99.9% level of probability, respectively.

When the data from survey questions 5, 6 and 7 are combined it is obvious that the public thought wind and solar are the most viable long-term solutions for increasing Idaho’s share of renewable electricity production (Table 8). This table compares wind, solar and the other potential future sources of energy (hydropower, geothermal, nuclear, coal, oil, gas, biomass, tidal) shown in Tables 1, 2 and 7. The percentage of Idaho respondents that feel that wind should be relied upon to increase renewable electricity in Idaho increased from 25% in 1987 to 46% in 2022 (Table 8). Basically, in 2022 almost half of the survey respondents felt that wind should be the dominant electricity expansion resource in Idaho. The percentage of survey respondents that felt that Idaho should rely on solar energy for the expansion of renewable electricity over the next 20 years ranged from 34 to 40% depending on the survey year as there were no observable year-to-year trends. Survey respondents favored wind over solar in the 2017 and 2022 surveys. Conversely, Idahoans favored solar over wind in the 1987, 1992, 1997, 2002, 2007 and 2012 surveys.

Looking out 20 years into the future, 40% of survey respondents felt that choices other than wind or solar were better options in 1987. However, by 2022 only 20% of survey respondents thought that there were better options than solar or wind. This downward trend over the 35-year survey period indicated that the public is more likely to promote the use of solar or wind 20 years into the future than other electricity sources.

The demographic factors of gender, community size and state of residence impacted survey respondent choices. Males were more likely to view oil as more important than females, while females ranked hydropower and natural gas as more important than males. Residents of communities larger than 40,000 were more likely to consider oil and natural gas more important than respondents in towns with less than 7,000 people. The demographic factors of age and education level did not affect respondents’ answers to this survey question.

3.5 Impact of geography on renewable energy in Idaho’s future

When the state was divided into three geographic regions, differences in the preferred electricity source of the future were apparent (Table 9). Residents of southeastern Idaho were most likely to support the expansion of wind energy in the next 20 years. This is likely due to high velocity and constant winds that are common in this region. Residents of southwestern Idaho were most likely to support solar energy. This is likely due to the large number sunny days in this region. Solar and wind energy are not good options for northern Idaho because of low levels of solar radiation and infrequent winds. Consequently, northern Idaho residents felt that hydropower was their best choice for future energy expansion. Although Idahoans did not feel that geothermal would be a major renewable energy source in the next 20 years, residents of the southwestern part of the state were most likely to support this energy resource.