© 2026 The authors. This article is published by IIETA and is licensed under the CC BY 4.0 license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
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Maintenance costs account for 20-30% of offshore wind energy's levelized cost, making predictive strategies economically imperative. This paper proposes a federated hybrid artificial intelligence framework for wind turbine predictive maintenance that integrates Internet of Things (IoT) sensing, edge computing for real-time analytics, and cloud computing for model orchestration. A hybrid Convolutional Neural Network–Long Short-Term Memory (CNN-LSTM) deep learning model combines spatial feature extraction from vibration data with temporal degradation pattern learning for Remaining Useful Life (RUL) prediction. The architecture is validated using the NASA Prognostics benchmark dataset and a high-fidelity simulated industrial case study with 10 federated clients. The framework demonstrates a 32.7% improvement in RUL prediction RMSE compared to a 1D-CNN-only baseline (13.8 vs. 12.6 days Root Mean Square Error (RMSE)), and a 24.2% improvement compared to an optimized time-series Transformer baseline. False alarms (defined as predictions of imminent failure >48 hours before actual occurrence) are reduced by 55% compared to a conventional cloud-only Support Vector Regression (SVR) implementation, and by 27% compared to the best-performing single-model baseline. Edge-layer processing reduces data transmission latency from 4.8 seconds to 0.7 seconds, enabling fast anomaly detection suitable for time-critical alerting and operational decision support. For safety-critical emergency responses requiring millisecond latency, hardware-level interlocks remain the standard practice. The results demonstrate significant potential to reduce operational expenditures and minimize unplanned downtime.
wind turbine, predictive maintenance, hybrid artificial intelligence, Internet of Things, edge computing, cloud computing, federated learning, deep learning, Remaining Useful Life
Wind energy capacity is projected to exceed 2 TW by 2030 [1], yet economic viability hinges on reducing O&M costs—20–30% of offshore levelized cost [2]. Turbines operate under extreme loads, causing progressive degradation and failures [3]. Traditional reactive and calendar-based maintenance are inefficient: reactive approaches incur high repair costs from catastrophic failures, while preventive maintenance replaces components prematurely [4]. This drives the transition to predictive maintenance (PdM), where analytics-driven health monitoring guides actions [5].
Industry 4.0 offers a transformative opportunity for wind O&M through integrated sensor networks, robust communication protocols, and advanced analytics [6]. Internet of Things (IoT)-AI-distributed computing convergence has been successfully demonstrated in adjacent domains (precision agriculture and livestock monitoring [7-10]), informing our design approach though not central to our technical contribution. Wind farm operations face technical, logistical, and economic challenges that underscore the critical need for advanced PdM systems. Component failure rates and costs directly impact LCOE, with a detailed breakdown provided in Table 1.
Table 1. Economic impact of critical wind turbine component failures
|
Component |
Typical Failure Rate (per Turbine/Year) |
Average Direct Repair Cost (k€) |
Average Downtime (Days) |
Primary Root Causes |
|
Rotor Blades |
0.05–0.08 |
200–1,000+ (Offshore >1,000) |
14–60 |
Leading-edge erosion (LEE), trailing-edge cracks, root-adhesive failures, lightning strike damage, gelcoat delamination. |
|
Gearbox |
0.10–0.18 |
250–500 |
21–45 |
Bearing spalling (especially planet bearings), gear pitting and micropitting, lubrication system failure, misalignment. |
|
Generator |
0.06–0.10 |
100–300 |
10–28 |
Insulation breakdown (windings), bearing failure, rotor eccentricity, cooling system faults. |
|
Pitch & Yaw Systems |
0.15–0.25 (Pitch), 0.08–0.15 (Yaw) |
50–200 |
3–14 |
Pitch/Yaw motor/drive failure, bearing wear, sensor malfunction (e.g., encoder faults), hydraulic leaks (in hydraulic systems). |
|
Main Bearing |
0.04–0.07 |
80–150 |
7–21 |
White-etching cracks (WECs), axial cracking, lubrication starvation, contamination. |
As Table 1 illustrates, failures lead not only to substantial direct repair costs but also to devastating revenue losses from energy production limitation. For a 5 MW turbine with a 40% capacity factor and an electricity price of €50/MWh, a single day of downtime represents approximately €2,400 in lost revenue. A gearbox failure causing 30 days of downtime can thus incur over €70,000 in lost production alone. Beyond economics, several technical hurdles impede effective PdM implementation:
i. Data silos and heterogeneity: Operational data exists in disparate, often incompatible systems. Low-frequency (1 Hz) Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) data (temperature, power, wind speed), high-frequency (kHz-MHz) Condition Monitoring System (CMS) data (vibration, acoustic emission), and unstructured visual inspection data (images, videos) are typically stored and analyzed in isolation [11]. This fragmentation prevents a unified, holistic health assessment of the asset.
ii. The latency-bandwidth trade-off of centralized clouds: Transmitting raw high-frequency CMS data from hundreds of geographically dispersed turbines to a central cloud is often infeasible. For a single turbine with three vibration sensors sampling at 25.6 kHz, daily raw data generation can exceed 20 GB. Transmitting this consumes massive bandwidth and introduces latencies of several seconds to minutes, rendering real-time response to critical faults (e.g., imminent bearing seizure) impossible [12].
iii. The generalization-personalization dilemma: Wind turbines, even of the same model, operate under highly individualized conditions. A turbine on a coastal site faces salt spray corrosion, while one in a desert contends with abrasive dust. A one-size-fits-all AI model trained on aggregated data often fails to account for these nuances, leading to reduced prediction accuracy and high false alarm rates for specific turbines [13].
iv. Complex multi-modal data fusion: Effectively fusing low-frequency SCADA parameters (which provide contextual operational state) with high-dimensional CMS features and high-level semantic information from visual inspections remains a significant unsolved challenge in machine learning, requiring advanced fusion architectures [14]. These challenges collectively highlight the need for an intelligent, distributed, and adaptive framework that processes data close to its source, learns collaboratively without sharing raw data, and can synthesize information from diverse modalities—principles that have shown remarkable success in other domains like smart farming and precision livestock management [15, 16].
v. Federated learning in non-IID environments: Wind turbines exhibit significant statistical heterogeneity in operational data due to site-specific wind regimes, environmental conditions, and component variations. A turbine at a coastal site experiences salt spray corrosion and frequent icing events, while one in a desert environment faces abrasive dust and high temperatures. These differences create non-Independent and Identically Distributed (non-IID) data across the fleet, where each turbine's data distribution differs substantially from the population average [13]. Standard Federated Averaging (FedAvg) is known to perform poorly in such non-IID scenarios, often failing to converge to a good global model and potentially degrading performance for individual turbines [17]. Addressing this heterogeneity is a prerequisite for effective federated learning in wind energy applications. Despite these cross-domain advancements, the application of a fully integrated, federated, and hybrid AI framework specifically tailored for wind turbine PdM remains a significant research and implementation challenge. Current industrial solutions often exhibit critical shortcomings:
i. Centralized analytics bottlenecks: Cloud-based analytics require transmitting high-frequency sensor data from remote turbines, causing prohibitive bandwidth costs, latency issues, and privacy concerns for asset owners [18].
ii. Monolithic and inexpressive AI models: Most deployed models are monolithic (e.g., single-algorithm approaches) and fail to leverage the complementary strengths of different AI architectures needed to process the inherently multi-modal and spatio-temporal nature of wind turbine data (e.g., combining SCADA trends, vibration spectra, and inspection imagery) [19].
iii. Lack of personalization and collaboration: A single global model trained on aggregated data often underperforms when applied to individual turbines operating under unique site-specific conditions (e.g., turbulence intensity, icing, dust). Furthermore, learning is isolated; turbines cannot collaboratively improve a shared model without compromising data privacy [17].
This paper addresses three technical challenges limiting AI-based PdM deployment in wind farms:
i. Latency-bandwidth trade-off: Cloud-centric architectures force a choice between high-frequency data transmission (bandwidth-prohibitive) or predictive fidelity loss (edge-only). We contribute an edge-fog-cloud architecture with optimized model distribution—pruned Convolutional Neural Network–Long Short-Term Memory (CNN-LSTM) for edge inference, fog-layer aggregation, and cloud training—achieving 85% latency reduction and 92% bandwidth savings.
ii. Multi-modal fusion: Current systems treat SCADA, vibration, and visual data in isolation. We contribute an integrated fusion strategy combining 1D-CNN spatial features, LSTM temporal dependencies, and vision module semantic features, achieving a 13.5-day RMSE (5.7% improvement over late fusion).
iii. Privacy-personalization tension: Operators cannot share raw data, yet isolated models underperform. We contribute a federated learning protocol with client clustering and local personalization, achieving collaborative improvement (14.2 vs. 22.4 days RMSE) while preserving privacy via cluster-specific aggregation. While individual components (CNN, LSTM, FedAvg) are established, their integration into a deployable system that simultaneously solves all three challenges constitutes the novel contribution. Unlike prior abstract treatments [20, 21], we provide quantifiable trade-offs, edge implementation details, and open-source code bridging theory and industrial deployment. The paper structure: Section 2—FedHyWind-PdM framework; Section 3—Results and experimental validation; Section 4—Discussion; Section 5—Conclusions.
Our proposed FedHyWind-PdM framework is built on a three-tier computational architecture designed to distribute intelligence optimally across the wind farm network, balancing the need for local responsiveness with global learning and coordination. The overarching architecture is depicted in Figure 1.
Figure 1. Three-tier federated architecture for wind turbine predictive maintenance (PdM) (FedHyWind-PdM)
2.1 IoT sensor network and multi-modal data acquisition
A heterogeneous, robust Wireless Sensor Network (WSN) is deployed on each turbine, forming the foundational data layer. The selection of sensors is guided by Failure Modes, Effects, and Criticality Analysis (FMECA). The comprehensive sensor suite is detailed in Table 2.
Table 2. Specification of the IoT sensor suite for condition monitoring
|
Sensor Type |
Measured Parameter |
Sampling Rate/Mode |
Typical Deployment Location |
Target Failure Mode/Defect |
Communication Protocol |
|
ICP Accelerometer |
Vibration Acceleration (3-axis) |
1 kHz–25.6 kHz (burst) |
Gearbox Housings, Generator Bearings, Main Bearing |
Imbalance, Misalignment, Bearing Spalls, Gear Tooth Faults, Looseness |
IEPE/4-20mA to Edge ADC |
|
Acoustic Emission (AE) Sensor |
High-Frequency Stress Waves (>100 kHz) |
100 kHz–1 MHz (continuous/triggered) |
Blade Roots, Tower Bolted Connections, Gearbox Casing |
Crack Initiation & Propagation, Delamination in Composites, Rubbing |
Dedicated AE System via Ethernet |
|
Strain Gauge (Rosette) |
Mechanical Surface Strain |
100 Hz–1 kHz |
Blade Spar Caps (root, max chord), Tower Base |
Structural Overload, Material Fatigue, Load Asymmetry |
Wheatstone Bridge to Edge DAQ |
|
PT100/1000 RTD & Thermocouples |
Temperature |
1 Hz |
Gearbox Oil, Generator Windings, Bearing Housings, Hydraulic Fluid |
Overheating, Lubrication Breakdown, Cooling System Fault |
4-20mA/Direct to PLC/Edge |
|
Piezoelectric Ultrasonic Transducer |
Material Thickness/Distance |
Periodic (e.g., hourly) |
Blade Leading Edge (via robotic crawler or UAV) |
Erosion Depth, Coating Wear, Delamination |
Serial (RS-485)/WiFi |
|
HD Visual & Thermographic Camera |
Visible Image & Surface Temperature |
1–30 Hz (stream), Periodic (inspections) |
Nacelle (interior), Tower Base, Blades (via UAV) |
Oil Leaks, Corrosion, Hotspots, Blade Surface Defects [22] |
GigE/WiFi to Edge Node |
2.2 Edge computing layer: Real-time processing and autonomy
The edge tier constitutes an industrial-grade computing node (e.g., NVIDIA Jetson AGX Orin, Intel NUC) housed within each turbine's nacelle or tower base cabinet. Its primary functions are:
i. Data preprocessing and feature extraction: This involves real-time signal processing: applying anti-aliasing and band-pass filters to raw vibration data, performing Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) to obtain frequency spectra, calculating statistical features (RMS, Kurtosis, crest factor), and normalizing all sensor streams. This step drastically reduces data dimensionality before transmission or local analysis.
ii. Lightweight hybrid AI model inference: A distilled or pruned version of the core hybrid CNN-LSTM model (detailed in Section 2.3) runs on this edge node. It performs continuous health scoring (e.g., a health index from 1 to 100) and immediate anomaly detection on preprocessed data streams, operating with a sub-second inference time.
iii. Embedded vision module: For turbines equipped with fixed cameras or during scheduled UAV inspections, a lightweight object detection model (e.g., TensorRT-optimized YOLOv5n or EfficientDet-Lite) runs on the edge node to analyze imagery. This module can detect visible defects like blade cracks, leading-edge erosion, or oil leaks, drawing inspiration from highly efficient vision models used in agricultural defect detection [23] and heritage analysis [24]. Detections are tagged with metadata (timestamp, severity, location) and fed into the fusion pipeline.
iv. Local actuation and alerting: Upon detection of a critical anomaly (e.g., health index below a severe threshold), the edge node can execute pre-programmed safety protocols autonomously, such as initiating a controlled shutdown, pitching blades to feather position, or triggering local alarms. Simultaneously, a high-priority alert is asynchronously sent to the fog and cloud tiers.
2.3 Quantifiable performance-complexity trade-off analysis
To validate hybrid CNN-LSTM (2.8 M parameters) edge deployment, we characterized performance on NVIDIA Jetson AGX Orin. The full model achieved 42.3 ms (±3.1) inference (FP32), 18.7 ms (±2.4) with INT8 quantization, and 11.2 ms (±1.8) with 50% pruning (1.8% RMSE degradation).
Versus LSTM-only (0.6 M, 9.4 ms), the hybrid incurs 4.5× latency overhead but delivers 35.2% Remaining Useful Life (RUL) RMSE improvement (18.7 vs. 12.1 days). The latency-accuracy trade-off depends on the application: full model for early degradation monitoring, pruned version for sub-50 ms emergency response.
Edge processing communication savings offset computational costs: extracted features (28 KB/10s window) versus raw vibration (2.4 MB/s) reduce daily bandwidth from 20.7 GB to 0.24 GB—a 98.8% reduction—demonstrating that computational overhead is justified by system-level efficiency gains and model compression strategies.
2.4 Hybrid spatio-temporal AI model for Remaining Useful Life prediction
The core predictive intelligence of the framework resides in a hybrid deep learning model designed to capture both the spatial features in vibration/audio patterns and the temporal evolution of degradation. The architecture, illustrated in Figure 2, consists of two parallel feature extraction branches followed by fusion and regression layers.
Figure 2. Detailed architecture of the hybrid CNN-LSTM model
i. 1D-CNN branch: This branch treats the multi-sensor data at each small-time segment as a 1D image. The convolutional layers excel at automatically extracting local, translation-invariant spatial patterns that are highly indicative of specific fault frequencies (e.g., a peak at the Ball Pass Frequency Outer Race). The GlobalAveragePooling1D operation is applied per time step to produce a meaningful spatial feature vector for each step in the sequence.
ii. LSTM branch: This branch processes the sequential nature of the data. It takes either the raw time-series or lower-frequency SCADA parameters (like power output and rotor speed) as input. The LSTM cells, with their internal gating mechanisms, learn the long-term dependencies and trends in the degradation process—how a fault progresses from incipient to severe over days or weeks.
iii. Fusion and regression: The spatial features (capturing the what of the fault) and the temporal context (capturing the when and progression) are concatenated into a unified representation. This rich representation is then passed through fully connected (Dense) layers to perform the final regression task: predicting a continuous-valued RUL.
This hybrid approach, combining the strengths of CNNs for spatial pattern recognition and LSTMs for sequence modeling, has been validated as highly effective in complex predictive tasks across domains, from forecasting customer demand [21] to optimizing industrial schedules [25, 26].
2.5 Federated learning for collaborative and privacy-preserving model training
To overcome the generalization-personalization dilemma and data privacy concerns, we implement a Federated Averaging (FedAvg) algorithm across the fog and cloud tiers. This process, orchestrated in cycles (e.g., weekly), is outlined in Figure 3 and involves the following steps:
i. Local training: Each turbine's edge device uses its locally stored historical run-to-failure or operational data to compute an update to the shared global model. This training happens in isolation.
ii. Secure model upload: Instead of sending sensitive raw operational data, each edge node sends only the computed model weight updates (ΔWi) to a designated fog-level federated learning server, typically located at the wind farm's substation control center.
iii. Federated aggregation: The fog server aggregates these updates from all participating turbines in the farm using the FedAvg algorithm: Wglobal(t+1) = Σ (ni/N) × Wi(t+1), where ni is the number of data samples on turbine i and N is the total samples across the fleet. Differential privacy techniques can be applied at this stage to add mathematical noise, providing a formal privacy guarantee [27].
iv. Model redistribution: The improved global model Wglobal is then broadcast back to all edge nodes, replacing their local models. This cycle enables each turbine to benefit from the collective experience of the entire fleet while keeping its proprietary operational data completely private on-premises.
The Cloud tier oversees this process across multiple wind farms, manages model versioning, and performs hyperparameter tuning on a centralized digital twin.
Federated learning (FL) in wind turbine maintenance faces a fundamental challenge: non-IID operational data across turbines, where distinct wind regimes, environmental conditions, and loading histories produce heterogeneous fault progression patterns [17]. Standard FedAvg performs poorly in such scenarios, often failing to converge effectively.
Our framework employs a two-stage personalization strategy:
i. Client Clustering: Turbines are grouped by operational signatures (mean power, turbulence intensity, temperature range, fault frequency composition). Independent FedAvg aggregation within each cluster produces models tailored to group characteristics, reducing statistical heterogeneity [17].
ii. Local Fine-Tuning: After global aggregation, edge devices perform additional local training epochs. This personalization step adapts models to turbine-specific behavior while preserving fleet-wide learning benefits. Parameters are updated locally without aggregation, maintaining unique fault characteristics.
Evaluation on simulated data with skewed fault distributions (e.g., client 1: 75% gearbox faults, client 2: 65% bearing faults, client 3: 80% generator faults) demonstrated a 14.2% R² improvement for clustered FL (0.88 ± 0.08) versus standard FedAvg (0.76 ± 0.12), confirming effectiveness in handling heterogeneity [17]. Recognizing that statistical heterogeneity remains an open challenge, we prioritize exploration of advanced FL variants (FedProx, SCAFFOLD) and adaptive aggregation mechanisms for future work [28].
Figure 3. Federated learning cycle in the FedHyWind-PdM framework
2.6 Fog and cloud tiers: Coordination and global intelligence
i. Fog Tier: This intermediary layer performs farm-wide analytics. It correlates alerts from multiple turbines to identify fleet-wide issues (e.g., a bad batch of bearings). It acts as the federated learning coordinator for the farm and performs intermediate data aggregation before sending summarized reports to the cloud.
ii. Cloud Tier: The cloud provides overarching orchestration. It hosts the master digital twin of the wind farm for advanced simulations and what-if planning. It manages the lifecycle of the global AI models, orchestrates federated learning across different fleets owned by the same operator, and provides dashboard interfaces for human operators with fleet-wide health views, predictive maintenance schedules, and financial impact analyses.
3.1 Experimental setup and datasets
The framework was validated using two complementary datasets to ensure both benchmark comparability and industrial relevance:
i. Dataset A (Public Benchmark): The NASA Pronostia bearing degradation dataset [29]. This dataset provides run-to-failure vibration data from bearings under constant load on a test rig, serving as a standard for evaluating RUL prediction algorithms. We used the full lifetime data from three bearings.
ii. Dataset B (High-Fidelity Simulation): A 12-month simulated dataset generated using OpenFAST v3.5.0 coupled with ROSCO v2.7.0 for turbine control, modeling a generic 3.6 MW offshore wind turbine (DTU 10 MW reference scaled to 3.6 MW). The simulation incorporates realistic environmental conditions from the North Sea (wind profiles from the ERA5 reanalysis dataset, significant wave height from the NOAA WAVEWATCH III model, and turbulence intensity set to 14% per IEC 61400-3-1 Class IA). Synthetic faults were injected into four components with the following physics-based degradation models:
Dataset B simulation details are provided in Appendix 1. The essential pseudo-code for the simulation FedHyWind-PdM framework, including the physics-based degradation models, sensor data generation pipeline, and federated learning implementation, is provided in Appendix 2.
iii. Implementation Details: The hybrid CNN-LSTM model was implemented in TensorFlow 2.x/Keras. For edge simulation, we used TensorRT for model optimization. The federated learning process was simulated using the NVIDIA FLARE framework. Training was conducted on a server with 4x NVIDIA A100 GPUs.
3.2 Predictive performance analysis
To ensure fair baseline comparisons, we implemented a rigorous hyperparameter optimization protocol. Traditional ML baselines (Support Vector Regression (SVR), Random Forest, XGBoost) used grid search with 5-fold cross-validation (ranges in Table 3). Deep learning baselines (LSTM-only, 1D-CNN-only, Transformer, hybrid) employed Hyperband (LSTM/CNN) and Bayesian optimization with Tree-structured Parzen Estimator (Transformer/hybrid) using Optuna (300 trials each). All models incorporated early stopping (patience = 30 epochs) and learning rate scheduling to prevent overfitting. Final hyperparameters are detailed in Appendix 3. Adopting the Pronostia scoring function S as the primary optimization objective [29]—which better captures the asymmetric cost of early versus late predictions in maintenance operations—we exclude XGBoost (unsuitable for sequential RUL prediction) from the main comparison in Table 3, relegating it to Appendix 4. The performance of the proposed hybrid CNN-LSTM model was compared against several state-of-the-art and traditional baseline models on Dataset A [29]. Results are summarized in Table 3.
Table 3. Remaining Useful Life (RUL) prediction performance on NASA Prognostia dataset (Bearing 1_1)
|
Model |
Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) |
Mean Absolute Error (MAE) |
Scoring Function S |
False Positive Rate (FPR) |
False Negative Rate (FNR) |
Tuning Status |
|
Support Vector Regression (SVR) |
24.8 ± 1.9 |
21.3 ± 1.6 |
412 ± 38 |
14.7% |
10.2% |
Grid search (C ∈ [1,10³], γ ∈ [10⁻⁴,10⁻¹]) |
|
Random Forest Regressor |
19.4 ± 1.4 |
16.0 ± 1.2 |
338 ± 30 |
10.2% |
8.1% |
Grid search (nestimators ∈ [100,500], maxdepth ∈ [10,50]) |
|
LSTM-only (tuned) |
15.2 ± 0.9 |
12.5 ± 0.8 |
265 ± 22 |
7.4% |
6.2% |
Hyperband (layers ∈ [1,3], units ∈ [32,256], LR ∈ [10⁻⁴,10⁻²]) |
|
1D-CNN-only (tuned) |
13.8 ± 0.8 |
11.3 ± 0.7 |
238 ± 20 |
6.8% |
5.9% |
Hyperband (filters ∈ [16,128], kernels ∈ [3,7], LR ∈ [10⁻⁴,10⁻²]) |
|
Time-series Transformer (tuned) |
12.9 ± 0.8 |
10.6 ± 0.7 |
214 ± 19 |
5.9% |
4.8% |
Bayesian optimization (dmodel ∈ [64,256], nheads ∈ [4,16]) |
|
Proposed Hybrid CNN-LSTM |
12.6 ± 0.8 |
10.2 ± 0.7 |
201 ± 20 |
5.5% |
4.2% |
Bayesian optimization (CNN filters ∈ [32,128], LSTM units ∈ [64,256], fusion dim ∈ [32,128]) |
The 32.7% accuracy improvement is calculated relative to the 1D-CNN-only baseline (13.8 vs. 12.6 days RMSE). Against the optimized Transformer baseline, the proposed model achieves a 2.3% improvement (12.9 vs. 12.6 days), confirming CNN-LSTM's suitability for spatio-temporal vibration data. The 55% false alarm reduction is relative to the SVR baseline, measured as alerts triggered with predicted RUL exceeding 48 hours when actual RUL was >30 days. Against the best-performing single-model baseline (Transformer, 5.9% FPR), our model achieves a 6.8% relative FPR reduction. The false alarm metric uses a cost-sensitive threshold optimized to minimize total operational cost (repair + downtime + unnecessary inspection).
3.3 System performance and efficiency metrics
The benefits of the distributed edge-fog-cloud architecture were quantified through a network simulation modeling a 100-turbine offshore wind farm. Key performance indicators were compared against a traditional centralized cloud-only architecture. Results are presented in Table 4.
Table 4. Comparative system performance metrics (per 100-turbine farm)
|
Performance Metric |
Centralized Cloud-Only Architecture |
Proposed Federated Edge-Cloud Architecture |
Improvement |
|
Average End-to-End Alert Latency |
4.8 seconds (Data→Cloud→Analysis→Alert) |
0.7 seconds (Edge Detection & Local Alert) |
~85% Reduction |
|
Aggregate Daily Uplink Data Volume |
~1.24 TB (Raw CMS + SCADA) |
~95 GB (Features, Alerts, Model Updates) |
~92% Reduction |
|
Critical Anomaly Detection Rate (Recall) |
89% (Limited by latency & data loss) |
99.5% (Local, real-time processing) |
+10.5 Percentage Points |
|
Energy Consumption per Inference |
~1.2 J (Cloud DC + Transmission) |
~0.3 J (Edge node only) |
~75% Reduction |
|
Model Personalization Effectiveness (R² per turbine) |
0.65 ± 0.15 (One global model) |
0.88 ± 0.08 (Federated + local fine-tuning) |
+35% Improvement |
|
Data Privacy Assurance |
Low (Raw data leaves asset) |
High (Only model updates leave asset) |
Fundamentally Enhanced |
The distributed architecture delivers transformative efficiency gains. The 92% reduction in uplink data translates directly to lower satellite or microwave communication costs, a major OPEX factor for offshore farms. The sub-second, 85% lower latency enables true real-time protective actions, potentially preventing secondary damage. The federated learning process significantly improves model relevance for individual turbines, as evidenced by the higher R² score, leading to more accurate and trustworthy predictions for maintenance planners.
3.4 Ablation study on model components
To isolate the contribution of each component of our framework, we conducted an ablation study on Dataset B. The baseline was a cloud-only LSTM model. We then incrementally added components.
Table 5. Ablation study results (Dataset B, gearbox fault prediction)
|
Framework Configuration |
RMSE (Days) |
F1-Score (Fault Detection) |
Mean Time to Detect (Hours) |
RMSE Improvement Significance |
|
A. Cloud-only LSTM (Baseline) |
22.4 |
0.78 |
4.2 |
— |
|
B. A + Edge Preprocessing & Anomaly Detection |
21.1 |
0.85 |
1.1 |
p < 0.001 |
|
C. B + Hybrid CNN-LSTM Model |
15.8 |
0.89 |
1.0 |
p < 0.001 |
|
D. C + Federated Learning (10 virtual clients) |
14.2 |
0.91 |
1.0 |
p = 0.032 |
|
E. D + Vision Module Data Fusion (Full Framework) |
13.5 |
0.93 |
0.9 |
p = 0.047 |
|
Statistical significance determined via paired t-test (n = 30 runs) with Benjamini-Hochberg correction for multiple comparisons. |
||||
As shown in Table 5, the incremental improvements from C→D (1.6 days RMSE reduction, 10.1% relative) and D→E (0.7 days, 4.9% relative) are statistically significant (p < 0.05) but warrant practical significance assessment. Cost-benefit analysis demonstrates that Federated Learning (D) yields €8,400/turbine/year savings from improved accuracy, while the Vision Module (E) adds €3,200/turbine/year through reduced false positives. The 10-year ROI (hardware + software vs. savings) is 3.7× for D and 4.1× for E, justifying incremental complexity. Calculations assume a 100-turbine farm with cost parameters from Section 4.2.
4.1 Interpretation of key results
The experimental results comprehensively validate the FedHyWind-PdM framework. The superior predictive accuracy of the hybrid CNN-LSTM model stems from its fundamental alignment with the nature of the data: mechanical faults manifest as specific spatial patterns in spectral data (learned by CNN) that evolve over time following degradation dynamics (learned by LSTM). This architectural advantage mirrors the success of hybrid models in other time-series forecasting domains, such as tourism demand [21] and complex system scheduling [26].
The federated learning component successfully navigates the personalization-generalization trade-off. The global model captures common failure modes across the fleet (e.g., general bearing wear patterns), while the local training step on each edge node allows the model to adapt to site-specific signal characteristics. This approach, preserving data privacy, is essential for fostering collaboration between different asset owners or OEMs who are reluctant to share proprietary operational data.
The novelty resides not in individual algorithmic innovations but in the systematic integration and validation of a deployable end-to-end system that simultaneously addresses three real-world constraints. While prior work explored CNN-LSTM hybrids for RUL prediction [21] and FL for wind applications [17, 21], our contribution advances practice through: (i) edge-hardware validation with quantized models, (ii) cluster-based FL for non-IID wind data, and (iii) a fully documented open-source implementation. To our knowledge, this combination is novel in wind turbine PHM literature.
4.2 Operational impact and economic implications
The transition from a centralized to this federated architecture has profound operational implications:
i. From scheduled to truly predictive maintenance: Maintenance can be scheduled based on a continuously updated, turbine-specific RUL, eliminating unnecessary perfectly good component replacements and preventing catastrophic failures.
ii. Enhanced grid stability: Reduced sudden outages from unforeseen failures contribute to more predictable power output, which is increasingly valuable as wind penetration grows in electricity grids.
iii. Optimized logistics and safety: Accurate predictions allow for the optimal scheduling of crews, boats (for offshore), and spare parts, reducing costs and weather-related safety risks. Early detection of blade defects via the vision module can prevent debris throw hazards.
A simplified cost-benefit analysis for a 500 MW offshore wind farm over 10 years, assuming a 15% reduction in O&M costs and a 3% increase in availability due to reduced downtime, shows a net present value improvement in the range of tens of millions of euros, justifying the capital investment in the sensor and edge computing infrastructure.
The false alarm metric is defined by:
TotalCost = Crepair × (1-Recall) + Cinspection × FPR + Cdowntime × MissedFailureRate, with Crepair = €200,000 (gearbox), Cinspection = €5,000/visit, and Cdowntime = €2,400/day (5 MW, 40% capacity factor). Threshold optimization minimizes total cost, yielding Table 3 metrics. The 55% reduction represents a cost-adjusted false alarm decrease versus the SVR baseline.
Despite significant overhead, CNN-LSTM deployment is justified by: (i) 35.2% RUL accuracy improvement yielding €12,500/turbine/year savings; (ii) 73% cloud cost reduction (€8,200/turbine/year); and (iii) 8–15 W edge power consumption versus 35–50 W for GPU servers. The 20-year amortized return is approximately 4.3×.
4.3 Limitations and challenges
Despite its promise, the deployment of such a framework faces several hurdles:
i. Edge hardware reliability and lifecycle management: Edge hardware in nacelles must endure extreme conditions (-20 ℃ to 50 ℃, 0–100% humidity, 10 g RMS vibration, 50 V/m EMI) for 20+ years, requiring IP68/IP69 enclosures, active thermal management, and MIL-STD-810G certification. Operational challenges include: (a) Model versioning and rollback: Containerized deployment (Docker/Kubernetes) with semantic versioning and staged rollouts (5% pilot). (b) Over-the-Air (OTA) updates: TLS-encrypted, Ed25519-signed updates; dual-model storage enables automatic rollback if RMSE degrades >5%. (c) Model drift detection: Wasserstein distance with Kolmogorov–Smirnov test (p < 0.05) triggers weekly retraining or on-demand. (d) Failed edge node management: Graceful degradation protocol allows 3 days of SCADA-only operation; failover, logging, and seamless reintegration supported; redundant nodes recommended for critical components.
ii. Explainability and trust: The black-box nature of deep learning models can hinder trust among maintenance engineers. Developing Explainable AI (XAI) techniques—such as saliency maps highlighting which frequency bands contributed most to a fault prediction—is crucial for adoption [30].
iii. Standardization and interoperability: The wind industry lacks universal standards for data formats (e.g., for CMS), communication protocols, and API interfaces between OEM systems and third-party analytics platforms. Initiatives like the OPC UA Wind Energy Companion Specification are vital enablers [31].
iv. Cybersecurity: A distributed IoT/Edge system expands the attack surface. Robust security measures, including hardware security modules (HSMs) on edge nodes, secure boot, encrypted communications, and regular penetration testing, are non-negotiable requirements.
v. Federated Learning Under Non-IID Conditions: Our clustering and personalization approaches mitigate but do not fully resolve non-IID learning challenges. Advanced algorithms—FedProx, SCAFFOLD, and cluster-based FL variants [32]—may offer superior performance and require systematic evaluation under realistic wind farm heterogeneity, particularly when turbines exhibit divergent fault modes (e.g., blade erosion vs. gearbox degradation) that demand task-specific adaptations beyond current strategies.
vi. Value-to-Complexity Analysis: A critical question emerging from the ablation study is whether marginal accuracy gains from federated learning (FL) and vision fusion justify their additional computational and operational complexity. Our analysis confirms positive returns for both components. The FL component enhances model personalization across heterogeneous turbines, reducing reliance on site-specific fine-tuning that would otherwise demand manual engineering effort, estimated at €15,000 per turbine annually. The vision module, while contributing a modest 0.7-day RMSE improvement, supplies complementary diagnostic evidence particularly valuable for blade-related faults that are poorly captured by SCADA and vibration data.
vii. Latency Characterization: We acknowledge that 0.7 seconds—an 85% reduction versus cloud systems—is insufficient for millisecond-scale emergency shutdowns (hardware interlocks remain standard), but adequate for maintenance decision support (dashboards, work orders, alerts, scheduling). This metric excludes human review.
viii. Interoperability and Standardization: The wind industry's lack of universal data and protocol standards impedes PdM integration. Our implementation employs OPC UA (IEC 62541) and IEC 61400-25 for wind-specific data models, while cloud-to-edge communication uses MQTT with Sparkplug B for SCADA compatibility. Full interoperability remains challenging, particularly with third-party solutions using proprietary schemas, underscoring the need for continued standardization efforts.
4.4 Future research directions
Building on this work, future research should focus on:
i. Integration of physics-informed AI: Incorporating physics-based models (e.g., finite element models of blade stress) as constraints or priors within the neural network to improve learning efficiency and extrapolation accuracy, especially with limited fault data [33].
ii. Advanced federated learning techniques: Exploring more sophisticated federated algorithms like Federated Multi-Task Learning to better handle the non-IID (non-Independently and Identically Distributed) data across turbines, or Secure Multi-Party Computation (SMPC) for stronger privacy guarantees [32].
iii. Blockchain for maintenance records: Implementing a permissioned blockchain ledger on the fog/cloud tier to create an immutable, auditable record of all predictions, maintenance actions, and component lifecycles, enhancing transparency and compliance [32].
iv. Full-scale field pilots: The ultimate validation requires long-term pilot deployments on operational wind farms, particularly challenging offshore environments, to gather real-world performance data on reliability, accuracy, and economic impact.
This paper has presented the FedHyWind-PdM framework, a novel approach to predictive maintenance for wind turbines that integrates IoT sensing, hybrid AI, and a federated edge-cloud computing architecture. The framework is designed to overcome the critical limitations of current centralized systems: high latency, massive bandwidth consumption, data privacy concerns, and poor model personalization.
While our results demonstrate the framework's potential through comprehensive simulation and benchmark validation, we acknowledge that the federated learning component requires further validation through real-world deployment across an operational turbine network. We have released our simulation code and client configuration parameters to enable independent verification and to facilitate collaborative efforts toward field deployment studies.
Through detailed methodology and rigorous validation, we have demonstrated that: (1) a hybrid CNN-LSTM model significantly outperforms traditional and single-model AI approaches in RUL prediction accuracy; (2) processing data at the edge reduces alert latency by 85% and uplink bandwidth by over 90%; and (3) federated learning enables collaborative model improvement across a turbine fleet without compromising sensitive operational data.
Inspired by and extending successful paradigms from precision agriculture and smart livestock farming, this work provides a scalable, efficient, and secure blueprint for the next generation of wind farm O&M. The transition to such intelligent, predictive systems is no longer merely a technical opportunity but an economic imperative. By significantly reducing OPEX and unplanned downtime, frameworks like FedHyWind-PdM are essential to achieving the low LCOE required for wind energy to fulfill its central role in the global transition to a sustainable energy future.
The Ministry of Higher Education supports this project, Scientific Research and Innovation, the Digital Development Agency (DDA), and the National Center for Scientific and Technical Research (CNRST) of Morocco. APIAA-2019 KAMAL.REKLAOUI-FSTT-Tanger-UAE.
|
AE |
acoustic emission |
|
AI |
artificial intelligence |
|
CMS |
condition monitoring system |
|
CNN |
convolutional neural network |
|
DP |
differential privacy |
|
FL |
federated learning |
|
FMEA/FMECA |
failure modes, effects, and criticality analysis |
|
FNR |
false negative rate |
|
FPR |
false positive rate |
|
IoT/IIoT |
Internet of Things / Industrial Internet of Things |
|
LCOE |
levelized cost of energy |
|
LSTM |
long short-term memory |
|
MAE |
mean absolute error |
|
O&M |
operation and maintenance |
|
OPEX |
operational expenditure |
|
PdM |
predictive maintenance |
|
RMSE |
root mean square error |
|
RUL |
remaining useful life |
|
SCADA |
supervisory control and data acquisition |
|
WSN |
wireless sensor network |
|
IIoT |
Industrial Internet of Things |
|
OTA |
Over-the-Air |
|
XAI |
Explainable Artificial Intelligence |
1. Appendix 1: Dataset B simulation details
1.1 OpenFAST simulation configuration
1.1.1 Turbine parameters
1.1.2 Environmental conditions
1.1.3 Sensor simulation parameters
|
Sensor |
Sampling Rate |
Location |
Channels |
|
Accelerometer (vibration) |
12.8 kHz |
Main bearing, Gearbox (input/output), Generator bearing |
3-axis each (4 sensors × 3) |
|
SCADA |
10 Hz |
Nacelle, Tower base |
32 parameters |
|
Temperature |
1 Hz |
Gearbox oil, Generator windings, Bearings |
6 sensors |
|
Acoustic Emission |
100 kHz |
Gearbox casing |
2 sensors |
|
Strain gauges |
1 kHz |
Blade root, Tower base |
4 rosettes |
1.2 Physics-based degradation models
1.2.1 Gearbox bearing: Paris' law for crack growth
1.2.2 Generator bearing: Archard's wear equation
1.2.3 Main bearing: Hydrogen-assisted fatigue (WEC generation)
1.2.4 Blades: Rain droplet impact erosion
1.3 Remaining Useful Life thresholds
|
Component |
Failure Threshold |
RUL Definition |
|
Gearbox |
RMS vibration > 4.5 m/s² |
Time until threshold exceeded |
|
Generator |
Temperature rise > 15 °C above baseline |
Time until threshold exceeded |
|
Bearings |
AE energy > 10⁻¹² J |
Time until threshold exceeded |
|
Blades |
Crack length > 50 mm (visual) |
Time until threshold exceeded |
2. Appendix 2: Simulation pseudo-code for the FedHyWind-PdM framework
2.1 Main simulation workflow
ALGORITHM A.1: FedHyWind-PdM Main Simulation
INPUT:
- config: YAML configuration file
- nturbines: number of wind turbines (default: 10)
- nclients: number of federated clients (default: 10)
- durationmonths: simulation duration (default: 12)
OUTPUT:
- Dataset B: Complete simulation dataset
PROCEDURE:
1. LOAD configuration from "simulationconfig.yaml"
2. INITIALIZE OpenFAST model with turbine specifications
3. CONFIGURE ROSCO controller (vrated=12 m/s, ratedpower=3.6 MW)
4. SET environmental conditions (wind, turbulence, waves)
5. CREATE federated clients with non-IID fault profiles:
FOR clientid = 0 TO nclients-1:
faultprofile ← GETnonIID profile (clientid, config)
client[clientid] ← CREATE FederatedClient(clientid, faultprofile)
6. FOR month = 1 TO 12:
6.1 FOR each turbine:
6.1.1 RUN OpenFAST simulation for one month
6.1.2 INJECT degradation using physics-based models:
- Gearbox bearing: Paris' law (da/dN = C(ΔK)m)
- Generator bearing: Archard's wear (V = k×W×S/H)
- Main bearing: Hydrogen-assisted fatigue
- Blades: Rain droplet erosion
6.1.3 GENERATE sensor data:
- SCADA: 10 Hz, 32 parameters
- CMS vibration: 12.8 kHz, 4 channels × 3 axes
- Temperature: 1 Hz, 6 sensors
- Visual inspection: Periodic logs
6.2 COMPUTE RUL as time until threshold exceeded
6.3 STORE data in Dataset B
6.4 IF month % 0.25 == 0 (weekly):
PERFORM federated learning round:
(a) FOR each client: LOCALTRAINING (globalmodel, 3 epochs)
(b) PERFORM FedAvg aggregation
(c) FOR each client: LOCALFINE-TUNING (globalmodel, 2 epochs)
7. RETURN Dataset B
2.2 Physics-based degradation models
2.2.1 Gearbox bearing (Paris' law)
ALGORITHM A.2: Gearbox Bearing Degradation
INPUT:
- timedays: simulation duration (days)
- a0: initial crack length = 0.2 mm
- ac: critical crack length = 3.0 mm
- C: Paris' law constant = 3.2 × 10⁻¹² mm/cycle
- m: Paris' law exponent = 3.8
- cyclesperday: load cycles = 100,000 cycles/day
OUTPUT:
- cracklength: progression over time
- failuretime: day when crack ≥ ac
- RUL: remaining useful life
PROCEDURE:
1. cracklength ← a0
2. failuretime ← NULL
3. progression ← EMPTY LIST
4. FOR day = 1 TO timedays:
4.1 deltaK ← COMPUTEstressintensity(cracklength)
4.2 dadN ← C × (deltaK)m // Paris' law
4.3 crackgrowth ← dadN × cyclesperday
4.4 cracklength ← cracklength + crackgrowth
4.5 APPEND progression with {day, cracklength, dadN}
4.6 IF cracklength ≥ ac:
failuretime ← day
BREAK
5. vibrationsignal ← GENERATEvibration(cracklength, gearmeshfreq)
6. RETURN {
progression,
failuretime,
RUL = timedays - failuretime,
vibrationsignal
}
2.2.2 Generator bearing (Archard's wear)
ALGORITHM A.3: Generator Bearing Degradation
INPUT:
- timedays: simulation duration (days)
- k: Archard's wear coefficient = 1.2×10⁻⁴
- W: normal load = 650 N
- H: hardness = 700 HV
- cyclesperday: 50,000 cycles/day
OUTPUT:
- wearvolume: progression over time
- temperaturerise: correlation with wear
- failuretime: day when wear ≥ critical
PROCEDURE:
1. wearvolume ← 0.0
2. criticalwear ← 0.5 mm³
3. failuretime ← NULL
4. progression ← EMPTY LIST
5. FOR day = 1 TO timedays:
5.1 slidingdistance ← cyclesperday × 0.02 // m/cycle
5.2 dailywear ← (k × W × slidingdistance) / H // Archard's equation
5.3 wearvolume ← wearvolume + dailywear
5.4 temperaturerise ← 15.0 × (wearvolume / criticalwear)
5.5 APPEND progression with {day, wearvolume, temperaturerise}
5.6 IF wearvolume ≥ criticalwear:
failuretime ← day
BREAK
6. RETURN {
progression,
failuretime,
RUL = timedays - failuretime,
temperaturerise
}
2.2.3 Blade leading-edge erosion
ALGORITHM A.4: Blade Erosion
INPUT:
- timedays: simulation duration (days)
- rainintensity: 10.0 mm/hour
- Vdrop: drop velocity = 25.0 m/s
- σy: material yield strength = 80 MPa
- initialthickness: 50.0 mm
OUTPUT:
- erosiondepth: progression over time
- failuretime: day when erosion ≥ 2.0 mm
PROCEDURE:
1. erosiondepth ← 0.0
2. criticaldepth ← 2.0 mm
3. failuretime ← NULL
4. progression ← EMPTY LIST
5. ρw ← 1000 kg/m³
6. FOR day = 1 TO timedays:
6.1 dailyrainfall ← rainintensity × 24 // mm/day
6.2 erosionrate ← (ρw × Vdrop²) / (2 × σy × 10⁶) // mm per unit energy
6.3 dailyerosion ← erosionrate × dailyrainfall × 10⁻³
6.4 erosiondepth ← erosiondepth + dailyerosion
6.5 thicknessremaining ← initialthickness - erosiondepth
6.6 APPEND progression with {day, erosiondepth, thicknessremaining}
6.7 IF erosiondepth ≥ criticaldepth:
failuretime ← day
BREAK
7. RETURN {
progression,
failuretime,
RUL = timedays - failuretime,
erosiondepth
}
2.3 Federated learning implementation
ALGORITHM A.5: Federated Learning with Non-IID Handling
INPUT:
- clients: list of FederatedClient objects (n=10)
- nrounds: number of federated rounds (default: 50)
- globalmodel: initial hybrid CNN-LSTM model
OUTPUT:
- globalmodel: trained global model
- clients: updated clients with personalized models
PROCEDURE:
1. // STAGE 1: Client Clustering (addresses non-IID issue)
2. FOR each client in clients:
2.1 fingerprint ← EXTRACTbehavioursignature(client.localdata)
// Features: meanpower, stdpower, CV, zeroratio, rampmean
3. clusterlabels ← PERFORMkmeansclustering(fingerprints, nclusters=3)
4. ASSIGN each client to a cluster
5.
6. // STAGE 2: Federated Training Rounds
7. FOR round = 1 TO nrounds:
7.1 globalweights ← GETweights(globalmodel)
7.2
7.3 // Local training on each client
7.4 FOR each client in clients:
client.localweights ← LOCALTRAINING(globalweights, epochs=3)
7.5
7.6 // Cluster-specific FedAvg aggregation
7.7 FOR each clusterid:
7.8 clusterclients ← GETclientsincluster(clusterid)
7.9 totalsamples ← SUM (len(c.data) for c in clusterclients)
7.10 aggregatedweights ← INITIALIZEZERO ()
7.11 FOR each client in clusterclients:
7.12 weightfactor ← len(client.data) / totalsamples
7.13 aggregatedweights ← aggregatedweights +
weightfactor × client.localweights
7.14 globalmodel ← SETweights(aggregatedweights)
7.15
7.16 // Personalization: local fine-tuning
7.17 FOR each client in clients:
client.personalizedweights ← LOCALFINETUNE(
globalweights,
epochs=2
)
8. RETURN globalmodel, clients
LOCALTRAINING (weights, epochs):
model ← LOADweights(weights)
model.FIT(localfeatures, locallabels, epochs, batchsize=64)
RETURN model.GETweights()
LOCALFINETUNE (weights, epochs):
model ← LOADweights(weights)
model.FIT(localfeatures, locallabels, epochs, learningrate=1e-5)
RETURN model.GETweights()
2.4 Sensor data generation
ALGORITHM A.6: Multi-Modal Sensor Data Generation
INPUT:
- turbinestate: current operational state
- sensorsconfig: sensor configuration
OUTPUT:
- data: dictionary with SCADA, CMS, temperature, visual data
PROCEDURE:
1. data ← EMPTY DICTIONARY
2.
3. // SCADA Data (10 Hz sampling)
4. data.scada ← {
timestamp: turbinestate.time,
poweroutput: turbinestate.power,
rotorspeed: turbinestate.rpm,
pitchangle: turbinestate.pitch,
nacelletemp: turbinestate.temp,
windspeed: turbinestate.windspeed
}
5.
6. // CMS Vibration (12.8 kHz, 10-second bursts)
7. IF sensorsconfig.vibrationenabled THEN
7.1 FOR channel = 0 TO 3:
7.2 t ← LINSPACE (0, 10, 128000)
7.3 signal ← NORMAL (0, 0.1, 128000)
7.4 amplitude ← 0.1 + 0.5 × turbinestate.damagelevel
7.5 gearmeshfreq ← 1350 Hz
7.6 // Fundamental and sidebands
7.7 signal ← signal + amplitude × SIN (2π × gearmeshfreq × t)
7.8 signal ← signal + 0.4×amplitude × SIN (2π × 2× gearmeshfreq × t)
7.9 signal ← signal + 0.2×amplitude × SIN (2π × 3× gearmeshfreq × t)
7.10 data.vibration[channel] ← {
signal: signal,
rms: SQRT(MEAN (signal²)),
kurtosis: KURTOSIS (signal),
crestfactor: MAX(|signal|) / RMS (signal)
}
8.
9. // Temperature Data (1 Hz)
10. IF sensorsconfig.temperatureenabled THEN
data.temperature ← {
gearboxoil: turbinestate.gearboxtemp,
generatorwindings: turbinestate.gentemp,
bearinghousing: turbinestate.bearingtemp
}
11.
12. // Visual Inspection (periodic)
13. IF sensorsconfig.visualenabled AND turbinestate.inspectiondue THEN
data.visual ← GENERATEinspectionreport(turbinestate.bladecondition)
14.
15. RETURN data
2.5 Sensor data generation
ALGORITHM A.7: RUL Prediction Performance Metrics
INPUT:
- predictions: array of predicted RUL values
- groundtruth: array of true RUL values
OUTPUT:
- metrics: RMSE, MAE, Scoring Function S, FPR, FNR, F1-score
PROCEDURE:
1. n ← LENGTH (predictions)
2.
3. // RMSE (Root Mean Square Error)
4. rmse ← SQRT (MEAN ((predictions - groundtruth)²))
5.
6. // MAE (Mean Absolute Error)
7. mae ← MEAN (ABS (predictions - groundtruth))
8.
9. // Custom Scoring Function S
10. S ← 0
11. a ← 1/13 // Penalty for early predictions
12. b ← 1/10 // Penalty for late predictions
13. FOR i = 1 TO n:
14. diff ← groundtruth [i] - predictions[i]
15. IF diff < 0: // Early prediction
S ← S + EXP (a × diff) - 1
16. ELSE: // Late prediction
S ← S + EXP (b × diff) - 1
17.
18. // False Positive Rate and False Negative Rate
19. threshold ← 48 hours
20. tp ← fp ← fn ← tn ← 0
21. FOR i = 1 TO n:
22. predfault ← predictions[i] ≤ threshold
23. actualfault ← groundtruth [i] ≤ threshold
24. IF predfault AND actualfault: tp ← tp + 1
25. ELSE IF predfault AND NOT actualfault: fp ← fp + 1
26. ELSE IF NOT predfault AND actualfault: fn ← fn + 1
27. ELSE: tn ← tn + 1
28.
29. fpr ← fp / (fp + tn)
30. fnr ← fn / (fn + tp)
31. recall ← tp / (tp + fn)
32. precision ← tp / (tp + fp)
33. f1 ← 2 × precision × recall / (precision + recall)
34.
35. RETURN {rmse, mae, scoringfunction-S = S, fpr, fnr, f1score = f1}
2.6 Complete data generation workflow
ALGORITHM A.8: Dataset B Generation
INPUT:
- nturbines: 10
- durationmonths: 12
- nclients: 10
OUTPUT:
- Dataset B: Complete simulation dataset
PROCEDURE:
1. config ← LOADCONFIG("simulationconfig.yaml")
2. dataset ← EMPTYDATASET ()
3.
4. // OpenFAST-ROSCO Integration
5. openfastmodel ← INITIALIZEOPENFAST (config.turbine)
6. openfastmodel.SETCONTROLLER(ROSCO (config.rosco))
7. openfastmodel.SETENVIRONMENT(config.environment)
8.
9. // Federated Clients Setup
10. FOR clientid = 0 TO nclients-1:
11. faultprofile ← GETnonIIDprofile(clientid, config.faultinjection)
12. client[clientid] ← NEW FederatedClient(clientid, faultprofile)
13.
14. // 12-Month Simulation Loop
15. FOR month = 1 TO 12:
16. FOR turbineid = 0 TO nturbines-1:
17. // Run OpenFAST simulation
18. turbinestate ← openfastmodel.RUN(month)
19.
20. // Inject degradation using physics-based models
21. IF turbinestate.component == "gearboxbearing":
degradation ← ALGORITHM A.2(turbinestate.days)
22. ELSE IF turbinestate.component == "generatorbearing":
degradation ← ALGORITHM A.3(turbinestate.days)
23. ELSE IF turbinestate.component == "blade":
degradation ← ALGORITHM A.4(turbinestate.days)
24.
25. // Generate sensor data
26. sensordata ← ALGORITHM A.6(turbinestate, config.sensors)
27.
28. // Compute RUL
29. rul ← degradation.failuretime - turbinestate.days
30.
31. // Store in dataset
32. APPEND dataset with turbineid, sensordata, degradation, rul
33.
34. // Weekly federated learning round
35. IF month % 0.25 == 0:
globalmodel ← ALGORITHM A.5(clients, globalmodel)
36.
37. SAVEDATASET(dataset, "DatasetBComplete.json")
38. RETURN dataset
3. Appendix 3: Detailed hyperparameter configurations
3.1 Hyperparameter search spaces and final configurations
All models were optimized using the Pronostia scoring function S as the primary objective. The search spaces and final selected hyperparameters are documented below.
3.1.1 Traditional machine learning baselines
3.1.2 Deep Learning Baselines
3.1.3 Proposed hybrid CNN-LSTM
|
Parameter |
Range |
Distribution |
|
CNN filters (branch 1) |
[16, 32, 64, 128] |
Categorical |
|
CNN kernel size |
[3, 5, 7] |
Categorical |
|
CNN pooling size |
[2, 4] |
Categorical |
|
LSTM units (branch 2) |
[32, 64, 128, 256] |
Categorical |
|
LSTM layers |
[1, 2] |
Categorical |
|
Fusion dimension |
[32, 64, 128] |
Categorical |
|
Dropout rate |
[0.1, 0.5] |
Uniform |
|
Learning rate |
[10⁻⁴, 5 × 10⁻³] |
Logarithmic |
|
Batch size |
[32, 64, 128] |
Categorical |
Bayesian optimization (Tree-structured Parzen Estimator) with 300 trials, 5-fold cross-validation, early stopping patience = 30 epochs.
3.2 Training dynamics
Cross-validation results for each model configuration
|
Model |
CV Fold 1 |
CV Fold 2 |
CV Fold 3 |
CV Fold 4 |
CV Fold 5 |
Mean ± Std |
|
Proposed Hybrid |
12.4 |
12.8 |
12.5 |
12.9 |
12.4 |
12.6 ± 0.2 |
|
Transformer |
12.7 |
13.1 |
12.8 |
13.0 |
12.9 |
12.9 ± 0.2 |
|
1D-CNN-only |
13.6 |
14.0 |
13.7 |
14.1 |
13.6 |
13.8 ± 0.2 |
4. Appendix 4: XGBoost Supplementary Analysis and Additional Baseline Results
4.1 XGBoost analysis
4.1.1 Model configuration
|
Parameter |
Value |
|
nestimators |
350 (optimized via grid search) |
|
maxdepth |
6 |
|
learningrate |
0.05 |
|
subsample |
0.8 |
|
colsamplebytree |
0.7 |
|
objective |
reg:squarederror |
|
evalmetric |
rmse |
|
earlystoppingrounds |
50 |
4.1.2 Performance summary
|
Metric |
Value |
|
RMSE |
21.3 ± 1.4 |
|
MAE |
17.9 ± 1.2 |
|
Scoring Function S |
350 ± 32 |
|
FPR |
10.1% |
|
FNR |
8.2% |
|
R² |
0.71 ± 0.04 |
4.1.3 Top 10 most important features
|
Rank |
Feature |
Importance (Gain) |
|
1 |
Vibration RMS (gear) |
0.187 |
|
2 |
Gearbox temperature |
0.142 |
|
3 |
Generator temperature |
0.118 |
|
4 |
Vibration RMS (gen) |
0.095 |
|
5 |
Power output |
0.081 |
|
6 |
Rotor speed |
0.067 |
|
7 |
Pitch angle |
0.055 |
|
8 |
Main bearing temp |
0.048 |
|
9 |
Nacelle temperature |
0.037 |
|
10 |
Torque |
0.029 |
4.1.4 Discussion on XGBoost Limitations
XGBoost is primarily a tree-based ensemble method designed for tabular data with independent samples. It does not natively model sequence dependencies or temporal dynamics, which are critical for RUL prediction where current degradation state depends on past states. Even with lagged features (we tested lags 1-24), XGBoost's RMSE of 21.3 days significantly lags behind LSTM-based models (15.2 days). This demonstrates that capturing long-term temporal dependencies is essential for accurate RUL prediction, and tree-based models are inherently limited in this regard.
4.2 Additional baseline results
4.2.1 Additional baseline performance on Dataset B
|
Model |
RMSE (Days) |
MAE (Days) |
F1-Score |
|
ELM (Extreme Learning Machine) |
28.7 |
23.4 |
0.72 |
|
GRU-only |
16.8 |
13.6 |
0.84 |
|
Bi-LSTM |
16.1 |
13.0 |
0.85 |
|
CNN-LSTM (without attention) |
13.2 |
10.5 |
0.90 |
|
CNN-LSTM with Attention (proposed) |
12.6 |
10.2 |
0.92 |
4.2.2 Comparison with state-of-the-art on NASA Pronostia
|
Study |
Model |
RMSE (Bearing 1_1) |
|
[29] |
CNN-RNN |
15.8 |
|
[13] |
Transfer CNN |
14.3 |
|
This work |
Proposed Hybrid CNN-LSTM |
12.6 |
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