Factors Underlying the Concept of Risk Acceptance in the Context of Flood-prone Land Use

Factors Underlying the Concept of Risk Acceptance in the Context of Flood-prone Land Use

L. Altarawneh J. Mackee T. Gajendran 

School of Architecture and Built Environment, University of Newcastle, Australia

Page: 
518-528
|
DOI: 
https://doi.org/10.2495/SAFE-V6-N3-518-528
Received: 
N/A
|
Accepted: 
N/A
|
Published: 
31 August 2016
| Citation

OPEN ACCESS

Abstract: 

The determination of acceptable risk levels for planning purposes is critical for policymakers concerned with floodplain management and safety issues; including the formulation of flood-prone land use policy and risk communication strategies. However, the concept of flood risk acceptance remains vague and is not yet fully understood in terms of how it is conceived and rationalised by the individuals engaged in flood-prone land use and development. In general terms, risk acceptance involves a complex weighing up of a range of influential factors that have evolved based on three key models: revealed preferences, expressed preferences and implied preferences. By investigating these models within the broader theoretical context of flood risk-related research, this paper, in essence, categorises six typologies that describe individuals’ psychophysical/cognitive states when they face the risk, respond to it and determine its acceptability contextualised within the process of flood-prone land use change. The paper then focuses on identifying the key barriers influencing the adoption of an informed, consultative approach to acceptable flood risk assessment and governance.

Keywords: 

barriers, consultative approach, factors, flood-prone land use change, individuals, residential satisfaction, risk acceptance, risk perception

  References

[1] Burby, R.J., Cooperating with Nature: Confronting Natural Hazards with Land-Use Planning for Sustainable Communities, Joseph Henry Press, 1998.

[2] Godschalk, D.R., Brody, S. & Burby, R., Public participation in natural hazard mitigation policy formation: challenges for comprehensive planning. Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, 46(5), pp. 733–754, 2003. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/0964056032000138463

[3] Berke, P. & Smith, G., Hazard mitigation, planning, and disaster resiliency: Challenges and strategic choices for the 21st century. Building Safer Communities. Risk Governance, Spatial Planning and Responses to Natural Hazards, pp. 1–18, 2009.

[4] Burby, R.J., Beatley, T., Berke, P.R., Deyle, R.E., French, S.P., Godschalk, D.R., et al., Unleashing the power of planning to create disaster-resistant communities. Journal of the American Planning Association, 65(3): pp. 247–258, 1999. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/01944369908976055

[5] Godber, A.M., Urban Floodplain Land-use–Acceptable Hazard? A Case Study of Flood Risk Perception on the Guragunbah Floodplain (Nerang River System), Gold Coast, 2002.

[6] Kasperson, R.E., Acceptability of human risk. Environmental Health Perspectives, 52, pp. 15–20, 1983. http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.835215

[7] Gough, J.D., A Review of the Literature Pertaining to ‘Perceived’ Risk and ‘Acceptable’ Risk and the Methods used to Estimate them, Lincoln University & University of Canterbury. Centre for Resource Management, 1990.

[8] Fordham, M.H., Choice and Constraint in Flood Hazard Mitigation: the Environmental Attitudes of Floodplain Residents and Engineers, Middlesex University, 1992.

[9] Kates, R.W., Hazard and Choice Perception in Flood Plain Management, University of Chicago: Chicago, p. 157, 1962.

[10] He, X., Residential Satisfaction with Home Location: Examination of the Relationship Between Location-Embedded Benefits and Risk Perception, Texas State University-San Marcos, 2009.

[11] Vogt, M., Willis, K. & Vince, J., Weighing Up the Risks-the Decision to Purchase Housing on a Flood Plain, 2008.

[12] Raaijmakers, R., Krywkow, J. & van der Veen, A., Flood risk perceptions and spatial multi-criteria analysis: an exploratory research for hazard mitigation. Natural Hazards, 46(3), pp. 307–322, 2008. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11069-007-9189-z

[13] Zhai, G. & Ikeda, S., Empirical analysis of Japanese flood risk acceptability within multi-risk context. Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 8(5), pp. 1049–1066, 2008. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-8-1049-2008

[14] Zhai, G. & Ikeda, S., Flood risk acceptability and economic value of evacuation. Risk Analysis, 26(3), pp. 683–694, 2006. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2006.00771.x [15] White, G.F., Human Adjustment to Floods, 1945.

[16] James, L.D., Laurent, E.A. & Hill, D.W., The Flood Plain as a Residential Choice: Resident Attitudes and Perception and Their Implications to Flood Plain Management, Environment Resources Center, Georgia Institute of Technology: Atlanta, GA, 1971.

[17] McPherson, H.J. & Saarinen, T.F., Flood plain dwellers’ perception of the flood hazard in Tucson, Arizona. The Annals of Regional Science, 11(2), pp. 25–40, 1977. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01287852

[18] Bollens, S.A., Kaiser, E.J. & Burby, R.J., Evaluating the effects of local floodplain management policies on property owner behavior. Environmental Management, 12(3), pp. 311–325, 1988. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01867522

[19] nunes Correia, F., Fordham, M., Saravia, M.A.G. & Bernardo, F., Flood hazard assessment and management: interface with the public. Water Resources Management, 12(3), pp. 209–227, 1998. http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1008092302962

[20] Kates, R.W. & White,G.F., Flood hazard evaluation. Papers on Flood Problems: Department of Geography Research Paper, 70, pp. 135–147, 1961.

[21] Vrijling, J., Probabilistic design of water defense systems in The Netherlands. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 74(3), pp. 337–344, 2001. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0951-8320(01)00082-5

[22] Vrijling, J.K., Van Gelder, P.H., Goossens, L.H.J., Voortman, H.G. & Pandey, M.D., A framework for risk criteria for critical infrastructures: fundamentals and case studies in the Netherlands. Journal of Risk Research, 7(6), pp. 569–579, 2004. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/1366987032000081178

[23] Molino, S. & Karwaj, A., Do we understand what is an acceptable flood risk? the people of Australia have their say. In Proceedings of the 52nd Annual Floodplain Management Authorities Conference, 2012.

[24] Zhai, G., Public preference and willingness to pay for flood risk reduction. A better integrated management of disaster risks: toward resilient society to emerging disaster risks in mega-cities, TERRAPUB: Tokyo, pp. 1–21, 2006.

[25] Fischhoff, B., Acceptable risk: a conceptual proposal. Risk, 5, p. 1, 1994.

[26] Vrijling, J., Van Hengel, W. & Houben, R., A framework for risk evaluation. Journal of Hazardous Materials, 43(3), pp. 245–261, 1995. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0304-3894(95)91197-V

[27] Bell, R., Glade, T. & Danscheid, M., Risks in defining acceptable risk levels. Landslide Risk Management, Supplementary, 400, pp. 38–44, 2005.

[28] Starr, C., Social benefit versus technological risk. Readings in Risk, pp. 183–194, 1969.

[29] Slovic, P., Fischhoff, B. & Lichtenstein, S., Rating the risks. Environment: Science and Policy for Sustainable Development, 21(3), pp. 14–39, 1979. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00139157.1979.9933091

[30] Slovic, P., Perception of risk. Science, 236(4799), pp. 280–285, 1987. http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.3563507

[31] Fischhoff, B., Slovic, P. & Lichtenstein, S., Weighing the risks: risks: benefits which risks are acceptable? Environment: Science and Policy for Sustainable Development, 21(4), pp. 17–38, 1979. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00139157.1979.9929722

[32] Macpherson, J.A., Safety, risk acceptability, and morality. Science and Engineering Ethics, 14(3), pp. 377–390, 2008. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11948-008-9058-5

[33] Rowe, W.D., Risk assessment approaches and methods. Society, Technology and Risk Assessment, p. 343, 1980.

[34] Rayner, S. & Cantor, R., How fair is safe enough? the cultural approach to societal technology choice1. Risk Analysis, 7(1), pp. 3–9, 1987. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1987.tb00963.x

[35] Covello, V. & Sandman, P.M., Risk communication: evolution and revolution. Solutions to an Environment in Peril, pp. 164–178, 2001.

[36] Kates, R.W., Perceptual regions and regional perception in flood plain management. Papers in Regional Science, 11(1), pp. 217–227, 1963. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1435-5597.1963.tb01899.x

[37] Bradford, R., O’Sullivan, J.J., van der Craats, I.M., Krywkow, J., Rotko, P. & Aaltonen,J., et al., Risk perception–issues for flood management in Europe. Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 12(7), pp. 2299–2309, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-2299-2012

[38] Scolobig, A., De Marchi, B. & Borga, M., The missing link between flood risk awareness and preparedness: findings from case studies in an Alpine Region. Natural Hazards, 63(2), pp. 499–520, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11069-012-0161-1

[39] Meng, B., Liu, M., Yan Liufu, H. & Wang, W., Risk perceptions combining spatial multi-criteria analysis in land-use type of Huainan city. Safety Science, 51(1), pp. 361– 373, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ssci.2012.08.010

[40] Burningham, K., Fielding, J. & Thrush, D., ‘It’ll never happen to me’: understanding public awareness of local flood risk. Disasters, 32(2), pp. 216–238, 2008. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-7717.2007.01036.x

[41] Schmidt, M., Investigating Risk Perception: a Short Introduction, Vienna, Austria, 2004.

[42] Montz, B., The generation of flood hazards and disasters by urban development of floodplains. Floods,1, pp. 116–127, 2000.

[43] White, G.F. & Haas, J.E., Assessment of Research on Natural Hazards, Mit Press, 1975.

[44] Handmer, J., Risk creation, bearing and sharing on Australian floodplains. International Journal of Water Resources Development, 24(4), pp. 527–540, 2008. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/07900620801921439

[45] Kaiser, E.J., Burby, R.J., Bollens, S.A. & Holway, J.M., Private sector land market decision agents as targets of floodplain policy. International Journal of Mass Emergencies and Disasters, 5(3), pp. 311–335, 1987.

[46] Ludy, J. & Kondolf, G.M., Flood risk perception in lands “protected” by 100-year levees. Natural Hazards, 61(2), pp. 829–842, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11069-011-0072-6

[47] Bell, H.M. & Tobin, G.A., Efficient and effective? The 100-year flood in the communication and perception of flood risk. Environmental Hazards, 7(4), pp. 302–311, 2007. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envhaz.2007.08.004

[48] Smith, D., Problems, issues and opportunities. Floods, 1, p. 254, 2000.

[49] Lupton, D., 1 Sociology and risk. Beyond the risk society: Critical reflections on risk and human security, p. 11, 2006.

[50] Godber, A.M., Hastings, P.A. & Childs, I.R., Local government views on addressing flood risk management on the gold coast. The Australian Journal of Emergency Management, 21(3), pp. 34–40, 2006.

[51] Burby, R., Policies for sustainable land use. Cooperating with Nature: Confronting Natural Hazards with Land-Use Planning for Sustainable Communities, The National Academies Press: Washington, pp. 263–291, 1998.

[52] May, P.J. & Deyle, R.E., Governing land use in hazardous areas with a patchwork system. Cooperating with nature: Confronting natural hazards with land-use planning for sustainable communities, pp. 57–82, 1998.

[53] Deyle, R.E., French, S.P., Olshansky, R.B. & Paterson, R.G., Hazard assessment: the factual basis for planning and mitigation. Cooperating with Nature: Confronting Natural Hazards and Land use Planning for Sustainable Communities, pp. 119–166, 1998.

[54] Fielding, J. & Burningham, K., Environmental inequality and flood hazard. Local Environment, 10(4), pp. 379–395, 2005. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13549830500160875

[55] Rocha, J.S. & Correia, F.N., Public perception of flood risk and flood defence policies. In Defence from Floods and Floodplain Management, Springer: Netherlands, pp. 457–477, 1995.

[56] Fordham, M., Participatory planning for flood mitigation: models and approaches. Australian Journal of Emergency Management, 13(4), pp. 27–34, 1999.