Application of Gray Target Models in the Prediction of Coal and Gas Outburst: The Case of Jinzhushan Coal Mine in China

Application of Gray Target Models in the Prediction of Coal and Gas Outburst: The Case of Jinzhushan Coal Mine in China

Q. Hu S. Peng J. Xu L. Zhang D. Liu 

Chongqing Research Institute Co. Ltd. of China Coal Technology & Engineering Group Corporation, China

State Key Laboratory of Coal Mine Disaster Dynamics and Control, Chongqing University, China

Page: 
142-149
|
DOI: 
https://doi.org/10.2495/SAFE-V5-N2-142-149
Received: 
N/A
| |
Accepted: 
N/A
| | Citation

OPEN ACCESS

Abstract: 

Coal and gas outbursts in coal mines are a complex dynamic geological phenomenon. A gray target model has been established based on the gray system theory to predict coal and gas outbursts. The model considers four influencing factors for coal and gas outbursts: gas pressure, destructive type of coal, coal rigidity, and initial speed of methane diffusion. Each weight of the factors is given through an improved analytic hierarchy process without consistency checks, and the accuracy of the assessment is high. By using the model, coal and gas outbursts in the Jinzhushan mine were predicted. Results demonstrate the viability of the gray target model in the prediction of coal and gas outbursts.

Keywords: 

Coal and gas outburst, gray target model, prediction, relational degree

  References

[1] Guo, D.Y., Fan, J.Z., Ma, S.Z. & Wang, Y.B., Prediction method of coal and gas outburst by analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. Journal of University of Science and Technology Beijing, 29(7), pp. 660–664, 2007.

[2] You, W., Liu, Y.X., Li, Y., Liu, C.H. & Zhou, J.B., Predicting the coal and gas outburst using artificial neural network. Journal of China Coal Society, 32(3), pp. 285–287, 2007.

[3] Sun, Y., Yang, S.Q., Wang, B. & Chu, T.X., Coal and gas outburst forecast by ANN and grey correlation. Journal of Safety Science and Technology, 4(3), pp. 14–17, 2008.

[4] State Administration of Work Safety of People’s Republic of China, The Control of Coal and Gas Outburst Regulations, China Coal Industry Publishing House: Beijing, 2009.

[5] Alexeeva, A.D., Revva, V.N., Alyshev, N.A. & Zhitlyonok, D.M., True triaxial loading apparatus and its application to coal outburst prediction. International Journal of Coal Geology, 58(4), pp. 245–250, 2004. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.coal.2003.09.007

[6] Kadsuo, K., Basic study on analyzing occurring mechanism of gas outburst. Coal Mine Technology, 1, pp. 16–19, 1980.

[7] Sommerton, W.J., Soylemezoglu, I.M. & Dudley, R.C., Effect of stress on permeability of coal. International Journal of Rock Mechanics and Mining Sciences and Geomechanics, 12(2), pp. 129-145, 1975. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0148-9062(75)91244-9

[8] Peng, S.J., Xu, J., Yang, H.W. & Liu, D., Experimental study on the influence mechanism of gas seepage on coal and gas outburst disaster. Safety Science, 50(4), pp. 816–821, 2012. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ssci.2011.08.027

[9] Peng, S.J., Xu, J., Yin, G.Z., Liu, D. & Wang, W.Z., Spatial–temporal evolution of gas migration pathways in coal during shear loading. International Journal of Mining Science and Technology, 22(6), pp. 769–773, 2012. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijmst.2012.11.009

[10] Wu, A.Y. & Xiao, H.F., Wang, C.L. & He, L.W., Establishment and application of weights and gray association model based on coal and gas outburst controlled factors assessment. Journal of China Coal Society, 30(1), pp. 58–62, 2005.

[11] Zhang, F.Y. & Han, Y., Application of grey relevancy analysis method in index optimization of outburst forecast when a cross-cut is uncovered. Journal of China Coal Society, 32(10), pp. 1023–1025, 2007.

[12] Han, Y.P., Improved grey correlative model for risk assessment on coal and gas outburst. Journal of Henan Polytechnic University, 29(3), pp. 316–319, 2010.

[13] Liang, B., Qin, B. & Sun, W.J., Possibility assessment of coal-gas outburst based on grey target model. Journal of China Coal Society, 36(12), pp. 1974–1978, 2011.

[14] Deng, J.L., Control problems of grey systems. Systems and Control Letters, 1(5), pp. 288–294, 1982. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0167-6911(82)80025-x

[15] Deng, J.L., Grey System Fundamental, Huazhong University of Science & Technology Press: Wuhan, 2002.

[16] Chen, S.W., Li, Z.G. & Xu, Q.S., Grey target theory based equipment condition monitoring and wear mode recognition. Wear, 260, pp. 438–449, 2005. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.wear.2005.02.085

[17] Xu, J. & Yao, G., Research of factors affecting the agro products logistics based on the AHP – grey correlation analysis. INMATEH – Agricultural Engineering, 40(2), pp. 19–26, 2014.

[18] Xiong, H., Sun, C.X., Du, P., Dai, Y. & Wang, Q., Synthetic assessment of power transformer condition based on Matter–Element theory. Journal of Chongqing University (Natural Science Edition), 29(10), pp. 24–27, 2006.

[19] Li, B., Wei, J. & Li, P., Nonlinear motion law of coal-bed gas seepage under the combined effects of stress and temperature. Journal of Power Technologies, 94(2), pp. 1–8, 2014.

[20] Macian-Martinez, V., Tormos-Martinez, B., Gomez-Estrada, Y.A. & Bermudez-Tamarit, V., A review of degradation process on compressed natural gas and diesel engines lubricant oils. DYNA, 88(1), pp. 49–58, 2013.

[21] Abhay, M.V. & Tushar, M., Coal bed methane exploration: a journey from alternative energy option to the environment polluting agent. Nature Environment and Pollution Technology, 9(3), pp. 575–580, 2010.

[22] Liu, L.M. & Xiao, H.F., Application of neural network to predict coal and gas outburst. Mining Safety & Environmental Protection, 30(1), pp. 34–37, 2003.