Probabilistic Models for Risk Assessment of Disasters

Probabilistic Models for Risk Assessment of Disasters

A. Lepikhin I. Lepikhina 

Department of Safety Engineering Systems, SKTB “Nauka” KSC SB RAS, Russia

Page: 
206-211
|
DOI: 
https://doi.org/10.2495/SAFE-V3-N3-206-211
Received: 
N/A
|
Accepted: 
N/A
|
Published: 
30 September 2013
| Citation

OPEN ACCESS

Abstract: 

This article considers risk models related to disasters of complex engineering systems. It is proposed to include parameters of system vulnerability, survivability and security into risk models. Types of risk function for different disaster mechanisms are discussed. It is shown that the risk functions may have both exponential and power mode peculiarity. The mechanism of transformation of the exponential distribution into power mode (Pareto) distribution is determined.

Keywords: 

Disaster, engineering systems, failure processes, probabilistic model, risk function

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