Patterns of Temporal Diffusion of Crime in Mexico

Patterns of Temporal Diffusion of Crime in Mexico

D.E. Santos-Reyes J.R. Santos-Reyes 

I’CHI Research, Development and Engineering, Oaxaca, México

Safety, Accident, Risk and Reliability Analysis Research Group, Seccion de Estudios de Postgradoe Investigación, Escuela Superior de Ingeniería Mecánica y Eléctrica (ESIME), Unidad Zacatenco, IPN, México, D.F.

Page: 
54-68
|
DOI: 
https://doi.org/10.2495/SAFE-V2-N1-54-68
Received: 
N/A
|
Accepted: 
N/A
|
Published: 
30 March 2012
| Citation

OPEN ACCESS

Abstract: 

Both academia and government institutions have paid significant attention to approach crime, over the last two decades. It seems that these approaches view crime as an isolated event and very little attention has been given to study the dynamic behaviour of crime through time. To understand the dynamics of crime, organisations need to answer a key question: How does crime evolve through time? This research uses a three parameter logistic function and nonlinear regression process to develop an understanding of the dynamics of crime in Mexico. It seems that crime behaviour is an orderly diffusion process. The patterns of temporal diffusion seem to grow slowly at the beginning, followed by an accel-erating and then decelerating growth, culminating in saturation or decline. This might help to a better understanding of the rate of crime change so that better approaches can be formulated for preventing and controlling crime.

Keywords: 

Crime, diffusion, S-curve, systems

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