Patterns of Temporal Diffusion of Crime in Mexico

Patterns of Temporal Diffusion of Crime in Mexico

D.E. Santos-Reyes J.R. Santos-Reyes 

I’CHI Research, Development and Engineering, Oaxaca, México

Safety, Accident, Risk and Reliability Analysis Research Group, Seccion de Estudios de Postgradoe Investigación, Escuela Superior de Ingeniería Mecánica y Eléctrica (ESIME), Unidad Zacatenco, IPN, México, D.F.

30 March 2012
| Citation



Both academia and government institutions have paid significant attention to approach crime, over the last two decades. It seems that these approaches view crime as an isolated event and very little attention has been given to study the dynamic behaviour of crime through time. To understand the dynamics of crime, organisations need to answer a key question: How does crime evolve through time? This research uses a three parameter logistic function and nonlinear regression process to develop an understanding of the dynamics of crime in Mexico. It seems that crime behaviour is an orderly diffusion process. The patterns of temporal diffusion seem to grow slowly at the beginning, followed by an accel-erating and then decelerating growth, culminating in saturation or decline. This might help to a better understanding of the rate of crime change so that better approaches can be formulated for preventing and controlling crime.


Crime, diffusion, S-curve, systems


[1] Griffiths, H. Smoking guns: european cigarette smuggling in the 1990’s. Global Crime, 6(2), pp. 185–200, 2004. doi:

[2] Santos-Reyes, D. & Santos-Reyes, J., Patterns and rates of crime evolution in Mexico, WIT Transactions on the Built Environment, pp. 119–127, 2007.

[3] Siren, R. Trend in Assault: on the relationship between the assault rate and selected social indicators in post-war finland. Journal of Scandinavian Studies in Criminology and Crime Prevention, 3, pp. 22–49, 2002. doi:

[4] Gutauskas, A., Juska, A., Johnstone, P. & Pozzuto, R., Changing typology of organised crime in a post-socialist lithuania (the late 1980s-Early 2000s), Global Crime, 6(2), pp. 201–221, 2004. doi:

[5] Lawton, B.A., Taylor, R.B. & Luongo, A.J. Police Officers on drug corners in phil-adelphia, drug crime, and violent crime: intended, diffusion, and displacement impacts, Justice Quarterly, 22(4), pp. 427–451, 2005. doi: 07418820500364619

[6] Seager, J.A. Violent Men: the Importance of Impulsivity and Cognitive Schema. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 32(1), pp. 26–49, 2005. doi: 0093854804270625

[7] Kivivuori, J. Sudden increase of homicide in early 1970s finland. Journal of Scandina-vian Studies in Criminology and Crime Prevention, 3, pp. 6–21, 2002. doi: http://dx.doi. org/10.1080/140438502762467182

[8] Gundersen, K. & Svartdal, F., Evaluation of a norwegian postgraduate training programme for the implementation of aggression replacement training. Psychology, Crime and Law, 11(4), pp. 435–444, 2005. doi:

[9] Schehr, R.C., Conventional Risk Discourse and the Proliferation of Fear, Criminal Justice PolicyReview, 16(1),pp.38–58,2005.doi:

[10] Buffington, R., Periodisation and its discontents: the social construction of crime and criminality in modern Mexico. In Center for U.S.-Mexican Studies. Project on Reform-ing the Administration of Justice on Mexico. buffington, 2003.

[11] Piccato, P., A historical perspective on crime in twentieth-century Mexico City. In Cen-ter for U.S.-Mexican Studies. Project on Reforming the Administration of Justice in Mexico, 2003.

[12] Skogan, W.G., & Hartnett, S.M., The Diffusion of Information Technology in Policing. Police Practice and Research, 6(5), pp. 401–417, 2005. doi: 15614260500432949

[13] Miro, R.J. & Curtis, G.E., Organised crime and terrorist activity in Mexico, 1999–2002, The Library of Congress., 2003.

[14] Golder, P.N., Historical method in marketing research with new evidence on long-term market share stability. Journal of Marketing Research, 37, pp. 156–172, 2000. doi: http://

[15] Piccato, P., Estadisticas del crimen en Mexico: Series históricas, 1901–2001. In Columbia University., 2006.

[16] Arango, D. & Medina, L., Análisis y tendencia del delito en México (1997–2002). In Seguridad Pública en México., 2006.

[17] Foster, R., Innovation: The Attacker’s Advantage. New York: Summit books, 1986.

[18] Altshuller, G., Creativity as an Exact Science. Gordon and Breach, Science Publishers, 1984.

[19] Rawlings, J.O, Pantula, S.G. & Dickey, D.A., Applied Regression Analysis: A Research Tool. Springer, 1998. doi:

[20] PGR (Procuraduria General de la Republica), Averiguaciones previas activas. In: http://, 2006.

[21] Jornada, Numeros de verguenza. In: juarez/indice_juarez.htm, 2006.