OPEN ACCESS
As the evidence for anthropogenic climate change is mounting, the need to evaluate its potential impacts in upcoming decades is becoming ever more important. As urbanised environments will be substantially affected, the evaluation of climate change impacts on building performance is crucial to ensure the sustainability and resilience of the built environment. In order to evaluate a building’s potential to adapt to the climatic conditions of its location, a bioclimatic analysis can be performed to determine and evaluate the potential for the application of bioclimatic design strategies (e.g. passive solar heating, shading, etc.). The presented paper reports on a bioclimatic analysis for the cities of
Paris, Berlin, Ljubljana, Moscow, Rome and Madrid performed using the BcChart tool. Firstly, the bioclimatic potential in accordance with the ‘current’ climate state (i.e. 1980-2000 period) was determined. Secondly, the current climate data were morphed using WeatherShift™ application and IPCC’s AR5 RCP4.5 climate change scenario. Then, the future bioclimatic potential was determined up to
year 2100. In order to facilitate the scenario uncertainties, the analysis was conducted for the 10th and 90th percentile of mean daily temperature change. The results show that the projected climate change will result in a noticeable shift of bioclimatic potential in all of the analysed locations. Overall, for temperate and cold climates the period of thermal balance with the environment will increase, however
under the presumption that effective overheating prevention (e.g. shading) is applied. A simple ecoeconomic analysis for Ljubljana showed that investment in automated shading is acceptable for the 30-year period. On the other hand, for Mediterranean and hot semi-arid climates, the temperature rise will result in the increased portion of the year when overheating mitigation measures are needed.
bioclimatic design, bioclimatic potential, climate change, eco-economic analysis, shading
[1] Bai, X., Dawson, R.J., Ürge-Vorsatz, D., Delgado, G.C., Salisu Barau, A., Dhakal, S., Dodman, D., Leonardsen, L., Masson-Delmotte, V., Roberts, D.C. & Schultz, S., Six research priorities for cities and climate change. Nature, 555(7694), pp. 23–25, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-018-02409-z
[2] IPCC, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, AR5 Report, 2014.
[3] Edenhofer, O., Pichs-Madruga, R., Sokona, Y., Minx, J.C., Farahani, E., Kadner, S., Seyboth, K., Adler, A., Baum, I., Brunner, S., Eickemeier, P., Kriemann, B., Savolainen, J., Schlömer, S., von Stechow, C. & Zwickel, T., Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2014.
[4] Pardo Martínez, C.I., Alfonso Piña, W.H. & Moreno, S.F., Prevention, mitigation and adaptation to climate change from perspectives of urban population in an emerging economy. Journal of Cleaner Production, 178, pp. 314–24, 2018. https://doi. org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2017.12.246
[5] EPBD-R 2010/31/EU, Energy performance of buildings (recast), 2010.
[6] Directive 2009/125/EC, Establishing a framework for the setting of ecodesign requirements for energy-related products (recast), 2009.
[7] Li, D.H.W., Yang, L. & Lam, J.C., Impact of climate change on energy use in the built environment in different climate zones – A review. Energy, 42(1), pp. 103–112, 2012. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2012.03.044
[8] van Hooff, T., Blocken, B., Timmermans, H.J.P. & Hensen, J.L.M., Analysis of the predicted effect of passive climate adaptation measures on energy demand for cooling and heating in a residential building. Energy, 94, pp. 811–820, 2016. https://doi. org/10.1016/j.energy.2015.11.036
[9] Pajek, L. & Košir, M., Implications of present and upcoming changes in bioclimatic potential for energy performance of residential buildings. Building and Environment, 127, pp. 157–172, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.buildenv.2017.10.040
[10] Olgyay, V., Design with climate, Princeton University Press: New Jersey, USA, 1963.
[11] Manzano-Agugliaro, F., Montoya, F.G., Sabio-Ortega, A. & García-Cruz, A., Review of bioclimatic architecture strategies for achieving thermal comfort. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 49, pp. 736–755, 2015. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. rser.2015.04.095
[12] Košir, M. & Pajek, L., BcChart v1.0. University of Ljubljana, Faculty of Civil and Geodetic Engineering, 2016.
[13] Pajek, L. & Košir, M., Can building energy performance be predicted by a bioclimatic potential analysis? Case study of the Alpine-Adriatic region. Energy Build, 139, pp. 160–173, 2017. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2017.01.035
[14] Houghton, J.T., Global Warming: The Complete Briefing, 5th edn., Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, 2015.
[15] Moss, R. (ed), Intergovernmental panel on climate change. Towards New Scenarios for Analysis of Emissions, Climate Change, Impacts, and Response Strategies: IPCC Expert Meeting report 19–21 September, 2007, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: Noordwijkerhout, The Netherlands and Geneva, Switzerland, 2008.
[16] Thomson, A.M., Calvin, K.V., Smith, S.J., Kyle, G.P., Volke, A., Patel, P., DelgadoArias, S., Bond-Lamberty, B., Wise, M.A., Clarke, L.E. & Edmonds, J.A., RCP4.5: a pathway for stabilization of radiative forcing by 2100. Climatic Change, 109(1–2), pp. 77–94, 2011. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0151-4
[17] Köppen-Geiger. World map of the Köppen-Geiger climate classification updated – The underlying data (High resolution map and data), 2017. http://koeppen-geiger.vu-wien. ac.at/present.htm (accessed on 5 April, 2018).
[18] Google. Google Earth 2018. https://earth.google.com/web/ (accessed on 5 April, 2018).
[19] EnergyPlus. Weather Data 2018. http://energyplus.net/weather (accessed on 2 March, 2018).
[20] Arup North America Ltd (Arup), Argos Analytics LLC, and Slate Policy and Design. WeatherShift 2018. http://weather-shift.com/ (accessed on 5 April, 2018).
[21] Rubel, F. & Kottek, M., Observed and projected climate shifts 1901–2100 depicted by world maps of the Köppen-Geiger climate classification. Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 19(2), pp. 135–141, 2010. https://doi.org/10.1127/0941-2948/2010/0430
[22] Yang, L., Yan, H. & Lam, J.C., Thermal comfort and building energy consumption implications – a review. Applied Energy, 115, pp. 164–173, 2014. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. apenergy.2013.10.062
[23] Naveen Kishore, K. & Rekha, J., A bioclimatic approach to develop spatial zoning maps for comfort, passive heating and cooling strategies within a composite zone of India. Building and Environment, 128, pp. 190–215, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. buildenv.2017.11.029
[24] OpenExp. Deep Energy Renovation: Trapped in Overestimated Costs and Staged Approach, Paris, 2018.