One of the European policy objectives, as envisaged by the EC Transport White Paper, is to reduce Europe’s dependence on imported oil and to cut greenhouse gas emission from transport by 20% by 2030 and by 70% until 2050 (with respect to 2008 levels). For achieving this goal, the role of integrated energy and urban mobility systems are explored as part of a city’s strategy towards sustainability (2011–2020). For developing future scenarios, we used best practice foresight analysis methods, where the desirable future relates to European policy goals. In this research, we adapt the extended metabolism model of a city developed by Newman (1999) and the material and energy flow accounting by Sheerin (2002) to assess the future role of electric vehicles, renewable energy (RE) use for mobility needs and energy efficiency increases for households living in the city of Aveiro, a medium-sized city of 78,450 inhabitants in Portugal. The social costs of carbon related to alternative vehicle technologies (electric vehicles) are assessed, along with the integration of RE. Several energy sources were considered: hydric, wind, solar (thermic and photovoltaic) and solid waste (incineration and biogas). A Life-Cycle Assessment analysis was performed for this estimation, where a share of 56% of RE was assumed to be achieved until 2020. It was found that each battery electric vehicle and the use of RE has an external cost associated with climate change of 0.032 €/1000 pkm in 2011 and 0.012 €/1000 pkm in 2020. For the city of Aveiro, this represents an external cost of 7094 € in terms of CO2 related emissions in 2020. If all conventional fuelled vehicles were replaced by electric bicycles, an energy reduction of 98.1% and an emission reduction of 3893 kg CO2eq per year (avoided CO2eq external costs of 5.96M€) could be achieved.
Battery electric vehicles and electric bicycles, renewable energy, energy efficiency, European transport policy and planning, CO2 emissions, climate change costs, traffic calming measures
 EC, White paper – roadmap to a single European transport area – towards a competitive and resource efficient transport system, Brussels, 2011.
 EC, Green paper – towards a new culture for urban mobility, Brussels, 2007.
 EC, Energy 2020 – a strategy for competitive, sustainable and secure energy, 2010.
 Banister, D., The Sustainable Mobility Paradigm. Transport Policy, 15, pp. 73–80, 2008. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2007.10.005
 IEA, Key World Energy Statistics, International Energy Agency: Paris, 2012. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/data-00451-en
 Newman, P.W.G., Sustainability and cities: extending the metabolism model. Landscape and Urban Planning, 44, pp. 219–226, 1999. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0169-2046(99)00009-2
 Sheerin, C., UK material flow accounting. Economic Trends, No. 583, 2002.
 Black, W.R, Socio-economic barriers to sustainable transport. Journal of Transport Geography, 8, pp. 141–147, 2000. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0966-6923(99)00038-1
 Farla, J., et al., Analysis of Barriers in the transition toward sustainable mobility in Netherlands. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 77, pp. 1260–1269, 2010. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2010.03.014
 Dijk, M., et al., The emergence of an electric mobility trajectory. Energy Policy, 52, pp. 135–145, 2013. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2012.04.024
 Rees, W. & Wackernagel, M., Urban ecological footprints: why cities cannot be sustainable – and why they are a key to sustainability. Environmental Impact Assessment Review, 16, 223–248, 1996. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0195-9255(96)00022-4
 Roy, M., Planning for sustainable urbanisation in fast growing cities: mitigation and adaptation issues addressed in Dhaka, Bangladesh. Habitat International, 33, pp. 276–286, 2009. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.habitatint.2008.10.022
 Jim, C.Y., Green-space preservation and allocation for sustainable greening of compact cities. Sustainable greening of compact cities. Cities, 21(4), pp. 311–320, 2004. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2004.04.004
 Altes, W.K.K. & Tambach, M., Municipal strategies for introducing housing on industrial estates as part of compact-city policies in the Netherlands. Cities, 25, pp. 218–229, 2008. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2008.04.005
 Holling, C., Resilience and stability of ecological systems. Annual review of Ecology and Systematics, 4, pp. 1–23, 1973. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev.es.04.110173.000245
 Jabareen, Y., Planning the resilient city: concepts and strategies for coping with climate change and environment risk. Cities, 31, pp. 220–229, 2012. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2012.05.004
 Pickett, S.T.A., et al., Resilient cities: meaning, models, and metaphor for integrating the ecological, socio-economic, and planning realms. Landscape and Urban Planning, 69, pp. 369–384, 2004. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2003.10.035
 Shen, L.Y., et al., The application of urban sustainability indicators – a comparison between various practices. Habitat International, 35, pp. 17–29, 2011. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.habitatint.2010.03.006
 Wolman, A., The metabolism of cities. Scientific American, 213, pp. 156–174, 1965. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/scientificamerican0965-178
 Kennedy, C., et al., The changing metabolism of cities. Journal of Industrial Ecology, 11(2), pp. 43–59, 2007. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1162/jie.2007.1107
 Gonzalez, A., et al., A decision-support system for sustainable urban metabolism in Europe. Environmental Impact Assessment Review, 38, pp. 109–119, 2013. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.eiar.2012.06.007
 Alberti, M., Measuring urban sustainability. Environmental Impact Assessment Review, 16, pp. 381–424, 1996. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0195-9255(96)00083-2
 Pincelt, S, et al., An expanded urban metabolism method: toward a system approach for assessing urban energy processes and causes. Landscape and Urban Planning, 107, pp. 193–202, 2012. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2012.06.006
 Ayres, R.U., Industrial ecology: a coming-of-age story. Resources, 130, p. 14, 1989.
 Hinterberger, F., et al., Material flow accounting and analysis – a valuable tool for analyses of society–nature interrelationships. Sustainable Europe Research Institute (SERI), Viena, 2003.
 Niza, S. et al., Urban metabolism: methodological advances in urban material flow accounting based on the Lisbon case study. Journal of Industrial Ecology, 13(3), pp. 384–405, 2009. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1530-9290.2009.00130.x
 Zonneveld, W., Conceptvorming in de ruimtelijke planning: Encyclopedie van planconcepten [Concept formation in spatial planning: EPC], University of Amsterdam, 1991.
 SWOV, Traffic Calming Schemes, Opportunities and Implementation Strategies, Institute for Road Safety Research, Leidschendam, 2003.
 TSO, Traffic Calming, Department for Transport, Local Transport Note 1/07, 2007.
 Quinet, E. & Vickerman, R., Principle of Transport Economics, Edward Elgar: Cheltenham, UK, 2004.
 Mankiw, N.G., Principles of Microeconomics, 6th edn., Harvard University, South-Western Cengage Learning, Manson, 2012.
 Prata, J. & Andrade-Campos, A., Development of a numerical tool for energy production in water supply systems. First ECCOMAS YIC, Vol. 49, 2012.
 Prata, J. & Lamas, T., Integration of renewable energies in a pleasure boat in the Ria de Aveiro – EcoSunBoat. ESTGV, 2009.
 Tchobanouglous, G. et al., Integrated Solid Waste Management. Engineering Principles and Management Issues, McGraw Hill Book Co., Davis, 1993.
 CCDR-C, http://datacentro.ccdrc.pt/.
 INE, www.ine.pt/.
 DGEG, http://www.dgeg.pt/.
 PORDATA, http://www.pordata.pt/.
 Porter, M., Estratégia Competitiva, Campus, Rio de Janeiro, 1986.
 PORTER, M. E. Estratégia Competitiva: Técnicas para análise de indústria e da concorrência Tradução: Elizabeth Maria de Pinho Braga. pp. 22–53. Edição. Rio de Janeiro: Editora Campus, 1991.
 Rockfellow, J., Wild cards: preparing for the big one. The Futurist, Jan-Feb, pp. 14–19, 1994.
 Prata, J., Arsenio, E. & Pontes, J.P., Future trends on the costs and benefits of electric, hybrid and conventional vehicles in Europe, 13th WCTR Rio, 2013.
 National Education Diabetes Program, Fat and Calorie Counter.
 APA, Resíduos Urbanos em 2010, 2011. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/s1982-45132010000200006
 Prata J., Arsenio, E. & Pontes, J.P., Moving towards the sustainable city? The role of electric vehicles, renewable energy and energy efficiency. WIT Transactions on Ecology and the Environment, 179, pp. 871-883, 2014. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.2495/sc130742
 Thiel, C., Perujo, A. & Mercier, A., Cost and CO2 aspects of future vehicle options in Europe under new energy policy scenarios. Energy Policy, 38, pp. 7142–7151, 2010. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2010.07.034
 ANSR, Vítimas mortais a 30 dias: ano 2011 Aveiro, Autoridade Nacional de Segurança Rodoviária, 2012.
 CE/INFRAS/ISI, External costs of Transport in Europe, Update Study for 2008, Delft, 2011.
 IMPACT, Handbook on estimation of external costs in the transport sector, Produced within the study Internalisation Measures and Policies for All external Costs of Transport, CE Delft, 2008.
 HEATCO, Developing Harmonised European Approaches for Transport Costing and Project Assessment (HEATCO), Deliverable D5, 2006.
 EC, External costs: research results on social–environmental damages due to electricity and transport, Brussels, 2003.