Political and Ideological Vulnerabilities in Indonesia's Border with Timor-Leste to Support State Resilience and Security: A Study on Belu and Malaka Regencies

Timor-Leste, formerly known as East Timor, was once the 27th province of Indonesia through the “Balibo” declaration, then confirmed by Act No. 7 of 1976 and MPR Decree No. 6 of 1978. The problem in East Timor has something to do with its long political history. For 23 years, the territory of Timor-Leste integrated with Indonesia, but the anti-integration parties (Portugal, the United Nations, and others) did not accept integration claims from Indonesia, which meant that they did not recognize the sovereignty of the Indonesian government in East Timor [7]. Finally, with a long effort, political policies in the government of B.J. Habibie resulted in the separation of Timor-Leste from Indonesia, so there was a referendum in 1999 and Merdeka on May 20, 2002 [8, 9]. This separation caused many people living in the Indonesia and Timor-Leste border region to have close affinities [10]. Following the Democratic Republic of Timor-Leste referendum, more and more problems arose with the NKRI in the border area [11].

After 2002, the Indonesia and Timor-Leste dispute became a community struggle involving residents from both nations. Border towns face distinct challenges due to their distance from government and multinational pressure [12]. Thus, cross-border collaboration is used to resolve issues when official negotiations fail [8]. The Convention for the Demarcation of Portuguese and Dutch Dominions on the Island of Timor 1904 (1904 Treaty), the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) 1914 [13], and the 2005 Provisional Agreement [14] govern the land border between Indonesia and Timor-Leste. Seven Belu Regency sub-districts and one Malaka Regency sub-district contain the Indonesia and Timor-Leste major border [15]. The Land Border Agreement (temporary agreement) signed by the Ministers of Foreign Affairs of Indonesia and Timor-Leste on June 8, 2005, established 907 coordinate points for the Indonesia and Timor-Leste border [10].

The border area is a geopolitical study because it relates to the concept of a state as a unity that has sovereignty, population, territory, and perception of the threat faced [16]. Governments need to pay attention to border control because they are vulnerable to external threats. Political, defense, security, economic, and socio-cultural problems [14] such as foreign ideological and cultural invasions, transnational crime, exploitation of natural and human resources, the expansion of drug networks, etc. are frequently emerging in border areas [17].

Border area problems are complex [18] and growing because they are the responsibility of multiple agencies, including border forces, immigration, customs, and quarantine [17], central and regional governments, communities, and stakeholders. This multi-agency system lacks coordination; therefore, governments cannot promote border management through strong governance [11, 19]. In addition, border areas were once considered Indonesia's "backyard,” causing development gaps. To overcome this, President Jokowi initiated the "Nawacita Program," which aims to transform border development and make it a "gateway" to Indonesia [12, 13].

Political vulnerabilities in the Indonesia and Timor-Leste border region need attention. Aspects of this vulnerability include political participation, political awareness, and political education. Political participation is a fundamental component within the framework of a democratic society. The phenomenon of political participation serves as an indicator of the political modernization process. Political participation refers to the participation and effort of citizens in order to monitor and comprehend matters of political significance. A weakened degree of participation in politics is frequently regarded as an unwanted indicator, given that it may be construed as an indication that citizens have no concern about matters pertaining to the state [20].

Political participation refers to the active participation of citizens in a multitude of political processes. Citizen participation in politics extends beyond mere endorsement of decisions; in fact, the more accurate term would be political mobilization [21]. In Indonesia, instances of citizen participation in the political system can be observed within schools, families, and communities. Indonesia, being a democratic nation, encourages all of its citizens to express their viewpoints. One method entails engaging in political activities across diverse contexts. Political participation signifies the societal disposition and responsibility to engage in political procedure. This type of participation can be organized and carried out in various ways. Political participation can change people from apathetic to active.

Political awareness is very important to instill in the younger generation from an early age. This development can be achieved through citizenship education lessons, which meet the criteria for forming students' political awareness. Learning involves students in a real environment to increase tolerance, participation, and political awareness, as well as involving other relevant stakeholders in organizing elections [22].

Higher political awareness may positively affect border region defense. This is due to the fact that heightened political awareness can inspire more community participation in the protection and security of border regions. The public will be more inclined to report suspicious activities and provide assistance to security forces in border regions if they possess a heightened level of political awareness. Apart from that, political awareness can also increase feelings of nationalism and love for the country, so that people will be more concerned and enthusiastic about protecting the territorial integrity of the country, especially in border areas that are vulnerable to external threats.

Aspects of ideological vulnerability in the Indonesia and Timor-Leste border region include the values contained in Pancasila. Maintaining the Pancasila ideology can be achieved through the application of strategic management theory to the following: formulation of strategies, evaluation and implementation, and internal and external analysis. Deputy VI for National Unity-Coordinating Ministry for Political, Legal, and Security Affairs; Director for Character and National Insight Ideology Development-Ministry of Home Affairs; and BPIP (Pancasila Ideology Development Agency) have thus far formulated strategies to strengthen the Pancasila ideology. BPIP has incorporated initiatives that strengthen the Pancasila ideology into its strategic plan, spanning the years 2020 to 2024. An environmental analysis, the formulation of a vision and mission, and the establishment of strategies, objectives, and metrics are all components of the strategic plan. Thus far, BPIP has participated in outreach initiatives targeting the younger population as part of its efforts to reinforce the Pancasila ideology. BPIP Deputy V consistently conducts evaluations with the aim of enhancing strategies that support the Pancasila ideology in Indonesia [23].

As stated by the Information Media Department of the Ministry of Defense of the Republic of Indonesia in 2018 [24], significant transformations in the way technological advancements impact the susceptibility of the state's ideology are inevitable. Youth in Indonesia must be cognizant of the need to defend the nation against a variety of extant threats. State defense education serves as an effective mechanism that encourages an increased level of patriotism while also facilitating the comprehension and application of Pancasila values in daily existence.

Several other things that can be done to strengthen ideology include instilling ideological values in the student environment through personality development courses. Nevertheless, in order to enhance efficacy, the educational process should more logically analyze the practical applications of the Pancasila ideology as it pertains to contemporary affairs and daily existence [25]. Aside from that, the approach taken by the government in utilizing cyber security will serve as a formidable deterrent against ideological threats that may emerge via social media. This is due to the fact that the advancement of globalization undoubtedly has both positive and negative effects in the realm of technology. By incorporating social media literacy into educational strategies, a society can become more cognizant of the numerous threats that already exist [26].

4.1 Belu regency

Belu Regency, East Nusa Tenggara, is one of the districts that borders Timor-Leste to the east and is a development priority [28]. Belu Regency is the Eastern Sector (main sector) of the land border, which borders directly with Covalima District and Bobonaro District in Timor-Leste for 126 kilometers [4, 19]. Belu Regency has the geopolitical title of being the front porch of the country in the eyes of the international community [29]. The area is 2,445.57 km², divided into 12 sub-districts consisting of 69 villages and 12 sub-districts. A total of 76 villages and sub-districts are in non-coastal areas, and the rest are in coastal areas. The population of Belu Regency at the end of 2022 was recorded at 224,306 people, so the population density in Belu Regency in 2022 was calculated at 175/km². There are 2 official gates as cross-border gateways for population and trade mobility located in 2 locations, namely Motaain and Turiskai [30].

4.1.1 Political vulnerability

Based on the questionnaire given to 101 respondents regarding politics in Belu Regency, the results were obtained as presented in Table 3. There were 16 statements related to politics, where the answers could be "strongly agree, agree, disagree, and strongly disagree."

Political aspects include political participation, political literacy, political education, and political culture. These aspects are influenced by the values, norms, and beliefs that influence how societies and individuals perceive politics. A study finds that the three research sites have distinct political cultures, but the participants exhibit a consistent political cultural inclination [31].

The political vulnerability of the inhabitants of Belu Regency falls into the low to very low category, as illustrated in Figure 2(a). Six subdistricts (Raihat, Lamaknen, South Lamaknen, Kakuluk Mesak, West Tasifeto, and Nanaet Duabesi) are classified as having a very low political vulnerability, while six subdistricts (Lasiolat, East Tasifeto, Atambua City, West Atambua, South Atambua, and Raimanuk) fall into the low category. Low to very low vulnerability values indicate that the populace of Belu Regency holds an in-depth awareness of politics, which serves as a fundamental defense against political-related threats, challenges, obstacles, and disturbances.

In the realm of politics, the presence of low to very low vulnerability values within Belu Regency may be construed as an indication of the region's populace's robust political fortitude. A heightened level of political awareness among the populace enables them to recognize and confront a multitude of political concerns that emerge, including those associated with misinformation, propaganda, or divisive efforts. Active political participation, in which citizens not only participate in general elections but also in community discussions, activism, and other political decision-making processes, is frequently associated with this high level of awareness [32].

Table 3. Questionnaire results related to Belu Regency politics

Political vulnerability, as seen in aspects of political participation, political literacy, and political culture, is still very high. Meanwhile, the Belu people's awareness of political culture, namely general elections, both presidential and regional head elections, is still going well. The 2009 elections were attended by 38 election-participating organizations, with a total of 164,250 voters out of 223,309 registered voters (73.55%) [33]. The implementation of elections in 2019-at that time, the presidential elections of Joko Widodo-Makruf Amin and Prabowo Subianto-Sandiaga Salahudin Uno-were more difficult in border areas. Apart from limited information, political unrest in border areas has also seen a decrease in the number of political participants. Political socialization is considered to have a significant influence on political participation because it can encourage citizens to prioritize voting rights, foster concern for the region, and create good nationalism [34]. The decline in the number of people participating in elections illustrates that there is a decline in people's trust in politics, so in this case, political communication is needed. General elections must be carried out in accordance with the principles of the 1945 Constitution. The election organizer (KPU) must guarantee that the election process is administratively correct and free from the impression of one-sidedness, as well as protecting the rights of citizens [33].

Apart from that, high political awareness also reflects a good level of political education in society. This means that residents in Belu Regency have a better understanding of their rights and responsibilities as citizens. They are more likely to engage in constructive dialogue and have the ability to critically analyze government policies and programs. This is very important in building a society that is resilient to various forms of political manipulation and fostering a healthy democratic environment where every voice can be heard and valued.

In addition, election organizers (KPU) must understand that political education has the potential to support the millennial generation's understanding of the urgency of political participation in the context of everyday life while strengthening their level of political awareness. With the resources and enthusiasm possessed by the millennial group, optimal utilization is expected from parties involved in efforts to increase literacy, especially in aspects of democracy and politics, including state institutions that focus on the political and government sectors. This is even more important considering that 2024 is scheduled to be the peak period for political activity.

4.1.2 Ideological vulnerability

The results regarding ideology in Belu Regency are displayed in Table 4. The responses to the eighteen ideology-related statements are as follows: "strongly agree," "agree," "disagree," and "strongly disagree.”

The ideological aspect includes people's understanding of the values contained in Pancasila, moral values, religious values, as well as attitudes and behavior towards others. The ideological vulnerability of the residents of Belu Regency is categorized as very low, as shown in Figure 2(b), due to the fact that their knowledge, attitudes, and behavior are in complete accordance with Pancasila and the Constitution of 1945. The very low ideological vulnerability indicates that the residents of Belu Regency have been reinforced with an ideology capable of withstanding ideological-related threats, challenges, obstacles, and disturbances. Despite the very low standards, the implementation and reinforcement of Pancasila values must remain a priority. Student nationalism within borders is extremely susceptible to stimulation and influence from neighboring nations, despite its relatively high level. It is imperative to instill Pancasila as a form of national identity in the younger generation from a young age. The introduction of content pertaining to the development of national identity into citizenship education lessons is essential for enhancing students' national identity formation [32]. Aside from that, the cultivation of ethical values can be achieved through the formation of character and behavior, which is essentially the promotion of Pancasila ideology. It is imperative to impart Pancasila values to the millennial generation in a succinct, visual, and comprehensible fashion [22].

Table 4. Questionnaire results related to Belu Regency ideology

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Figure 2. Belu Regency vulnerability map: (a) political vulnerability and (b) ideological vulnerability

4.2 Malaka regency

Malaka Regency, East Nusa Tenggara, is among the districts that share an eastern border with Timor-Leste. In accordance with Law No. 3 of 2013 of the Republic of Indonesia regarding the establishment of Malaka Regency in East Nusa Tenggara, Malaka Regency emerged as an autonomous region subsequent to the enlargement of Belu Regency. Its administrative center is situated in Betun, Central Malaka Regency [34]. The region comprises 127 sub-districts and a total area of 1,160.63 km², all of which are located on a single island in Timor. The recorded population of Malaka Regency is 188,191 individuals, resulting in a population density of 1,904 individuals per km². This border region has become a development implementation priority due to the fact that it necessitates the participation of numerous stakeholders in order to improve the development of numerous sectors. The establishment of three Integrated National Border Posts in Motamasin (Malaka), Motaian (Belu), and Wini (North Central Timor) demonstrates this [35]. East Kobalima District is the sole sub-district within Malaka Regency that shares a direct border with Timor-Leste (Figure 3). East Kobalima shares a 32-kilometer-long border with the State of Timor-Leste, which is traversed by four villages [36].

4.2.1 Political vulnerability

The outcomes derived from the survey administered to 103 respondents with respect to politics in Malaka Regency are displayed in Table 5. The responses to the sixteen political statements were as follows: "strongly agree," "agree," "disagree," and "strongly disagree."

Table 5. Questionnaire results related to Malaka Regency politics

The political vulnerability of the residents of Malaka Regency falls within the categories of very low and low (Figure 3(a)). In four subdistricts-East Malaka, Sasitamean, Io Kufeu, and Rinhat-political vulnerability is very low, and in eight subdistricts-East Kobalima, Kobalima, Laenmanen, Botin Leobele, Central Malaka, Weliman, West Malaka, and Wewiku-it is low. This shows that community politics remains exceptionally robust in terms of political participation, political literacy, and political culture. The fact that political vulnerability in Malaka Regency is rated as very low or low indicates that the populace shows a remarkable degree of political awareness, which serves as a fundamental defense against political-related threats, challenges, obstacles, and disturbances. One way in which community political participation can be utilized to assess political vulnerability is through its impact on the formulation of effective policies. Centralized policymaking would reduce the necessary dynamism of the fundamental demands of society within national borders [12].

4.2.2 Ideological vulnerability

Based on the questionnaire given to 103 respondents regarding ideology in Malaka Regency, the results were obtained as presented in Table 6. There were 18 statements related to ideology, where the answers could be "strongly agree, agree, disagree, and strongly disagree."

The ideological vulnerability of the residents of Malaka Regency is categorized as very low, as shown in Figure 3(b), due to the fact that their knowledge, attitudes, and behavior are in complete accordance with Pancasila and the Constitution of 1945. A low level of ideological vulnerability indicates that the residents of Malaka Regency show a strong ideology that enables them to confront ideological threats, challenges, obstacles, and disturbances. Despite the fact that ideological vulnerability is very low in Malaka Regency, this remains a cause for concern.

East Kobalima District is a priority location in Malaka Regency due to its status as a disadvantaged region with restricted government resource accessibility, which hinders its development in comparison to other areas. This condition leads to a wide range of issues, with particular concern for the deterioration of nationalism and national identity, particularly as it pertains to Pancasila [37]. The deterioration of societal sentiments associated with nationalism and national identity poses a significant peril to the Indonesian nation [36].

Nationalism incorporates national identity. Strengthening national identity in border regions requires local government initiatives and the promotion of the Indonesian language. Bahasa Indonesia is the way of life in East Kobalima, where residents communicate with their compatriots in Timor-Leste and Indonesia [38]. Border region residents are essentially subject to the ideological influence of neighboring countries, which manifests itself in education, way of life, and other aspects of daily community life. The cultivation and recognition of a strong ideology as a deterrent against the infiltration of foreign ideologies from neighboring countries. Strengthening Pancasila values in border areas can take the form of grounding Pancasila values, Pancasila education with an emphasis on theory and practice, maintaining national identity, increasing prosperity, and increasing a sense of justice, as well as practicing Pencasila in everyday life [38]. The people of East Kobalima also actively participate in flag ceremonies on both Independence Day of the Republic of Indonesia and National Education Day [36].

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Figure 3. Malaka Regency vulnerability map: (a) political vulnerability and (b) ideological vulnerability

Table 6. Questionnaire results related to Malaka Regency ideology

4.3 Prabowo Subianto and his role in the border region between Indonesia and Timor-Leste

Prabowo Subianto, a retired three-star lieutenant general and former commander of the Army Special Force and Army Strategic Reserve Command, has been a prominent figure in Indonesian politics, particularly in the context of presidential elections [39]. His popularity in the 2014 and 2019 elections was linked to the perception that Indonesia required a strong leader like him to protect the nation [40]. Prabowo's influence extended to first-time voters, raising questions about his ability to garner positive attitudes among the Indonesian public.

In the context of the Indonesia and Timor-Leste border, Prabowo's political stance and ideology could have implications for the border communities. The border regions are crucial for upholding Indonesia's sovereignty and integrity [41]. Effective conflict resolution efforts and participation in defending the territory are essential, with the government playing a vital role in bilateral communication and cooperation. The preservation of Indonesian language and culture in border areas contributes to national identity and unity.

Moreover, Prabowo's communication style, characterized by the use of maxims of generosity and sympathy, aimed to project a sense of altruism and empathy towards others [42]. His political maneuvers and challenges to Indonesian democracy have been associated with oligarchic populism, posing a challenge to the democratic fabric of the country. Prabowo's engagement with authoritarian innovations and populist movements has been a subject of scholarly analysis, emphasizing the complexities of Indonesia's political landscape.

Prabowo Subianto's role in Indonesian politics, especially in presidential elections, reflects a blend of military background, political maneuvering, religious affiliations, and communication strategies. His influence on first-time voters, support from Islamic groups, and challenges to democratic norms underscore the multifaceted nature of his political persona and the broader implications for Indonesian democracy.

The election of Prabowo Subianto as president of the Republic of Indonesia in the 2024 general election could potentially have various impacts on the Indonesia and Timor-Leste border region, depending on the policies and approaches taken by his government. Here are some possible impacts:

1) Border security and stability. Prabowo, with his military background, will probably pay special attention to border security. This can mean increased security and stability in border areas, which is important for preventing illegal activities such as smuggling and irregular migration. A firmer policy on the border could also affect bilateral relations with Timor-Leste.

2) Infrastructure and economic development. Prabowo has emphasized national development and domestic economic empowerment in his campaigns. His victory could encourage infrastructure development in border areas, such as roads, health, and education, which would improve the quality of life of local people and encourage economic growth. Stable political conditions are important for the economy and society's development and growth [43].

3) Relations with Timor-Leste. Given Prabowo's and Indonesia's history in East Timor, his victory could have a significant impact on relations with Timor-Leste. The approach taken by his government in dealing with old and new issues will be crucial in determining future bilateral relations. There is potential for increased cooperation or, conversely, increased tensions, depending on the policies implemented.

4) Human rights issues. Prabowo's victory is also likely to be closely watched by the international community and human rights organizations, given his past controversies. Its approach to human rights issues, both domestically and in the context of relations with Timor-Leste, will be important in determining Indonesia's international image.

5) Perceptions of Border Communities. The final and no less important impact is how people in border areas feel the direct impact of the new government's policies. Policies that support social, economic development and improve public services will have a positive impact on the perception and welfare of border communities.

In all aspects, it is important for the new administration to consider the specific needs and unique challenges faced by border communities in designing and implementing policies to ensure that their impact supports resilience, security, and sustainable development in the region. Border areas that are safe and have an open-access policy tend to be potential areas for progress and development if appropriate policy interventions are carried out [44]. Infrastructure, natural resources, and human development are the border area's economic performance strategies [45]. This method should include collaboration principles between central and local governments [46].

Based on research findings, the following practical implications can be formulated:

First, the importance of maintaining and increasing the already high level of political awareness among local communities through civic education and comprehensive public policy. This program can help people understand their rights and obligations as citizens, as well as facilitate active participation in the democratic development process.

Second, considering that ideological vulnerability is still low, the government needs to strengthen efforts to encourage intercultural understanding and tolerance. This can be done through cultural exchange, joint education, and awareness campaigns aimed at eliminating prejudice and promoting social harmony. Bilateral cooperation between the governments of Indonesia and Timor-Leste is also crucial in managing border areas. This includes cooperation in the security, economic, and socio-cultural fields, which can not only prevent conflict but also improve shared prosperity.

Third, involve local communities in decision making regarding border area management. The establishment of dialogue forums between communities that facilitate the exchange of information and aspirations could be one way to make this happen.

Fourth, strengthening infrastructure and economic development in border areas can increase prosperity and reduce dissatisfaction, which can be exploited by parties who want to disrupt stability. This includes the development of basic infrastructure such as roads, health, education, and access to other public services.

Finally, the development of monitoring systems and rapid response to security threats is critical. Cooperation across institutions and between countries to identify and respond effectively to any indication of conflict can help in maintaining peace and security in border areas.