Traditional Climate and Environment Forecasting Based on Local Knowledge of Urug Societies in Bogor West Java

The climate change variables such as temperature and rainfall variation lead to increase in crop pest population and disease outbreaks as well as a flood [1]. Climate change increases the stress on food systems, making resilience among rural communities more difficult [2]. Immediately, human life confronts to vulnerable because lack of food can be resulted by numerous issues. Indigenous peoples have a role to play in responding to climate change [3]. Indigenous people can adapt and mitigate environment hardship as well as climate change. Even folklore and proverb are utilized for the transfer of knowledge [4]. Local knowledge comes from the community and tie base on cultural [5].

Local knowledge includes as a cumulative body of knowledge, practice, experience and observations or from spiritual teachings which were handed down from generation to generation [6]. Problems are resolved based on experiences accumulated through centuries of people-nature interactions [7]. Meanwhile, indigenous knowledge can create community resilience instead of individual resilience because indigenous knowledge is a concerted decision base on the community.

Indigenous knowledge is a source of resilience because when indigenous knowledge is integrated into socio-ecological systems, these have demonstrated the ability to deal with complexity and uncertainty [8]. Traditional Knowledge can enhance social and ecological resilience through maintaining the capacity of ecosystems to provide essential services over time [9]. For achieving social-ecological resilience must imply social-ecological systems strategies and adaptation [10]. Social-ecological systems are integrated complex adaptive systems in which social and ecological subsystems are coupled and interdependent, each a function of the other, expressed in a series of mutual feedback relationships [11]. Further social-ecological resilience is not always linked to adaptation, it includes the ability to transform with change. Transform development practice and to support capacities to deal with shocks and surprises [12]. The indigenous community can withstand to perturbance in climate, food shortages, and environmental change through numerous real action.

There is a connection between social-ecological and indigenous knowledge because local people have knowledge about the phenomena of nature for forecasting climate as well as the environment, use of local variables which have been experimented for combating climate variation, and knowledge have ensured for achieving food resilience. Indigenous knowledge observes natural phenomena including the behaviour of animals, insect, plants, the direction of the wind, sort of clouds for foretelling climate periods [13, 14]. Indigenous people who have knowledge related to climate and weather, as well as indigenous knowledge, have developed adaptation strategies for ensuring food security [15]. In other, As excessive fruiting of breadfruit and mandarin (Citrus spp) result in extreme weather [16].

In a community like Yoggu and Chietanga which are determined drought season when snails and chameleon egg hatch [17]. Another clue such as crickets and spiders becoming more active is also a sign rain [18]. In South Africa in Tambo district detect drying periods when the movement numerous animals such as locusts, snakes, cobra, butterflies and bees [19]. Typically in Indonesia, Indigenous people like Baduy to react resilience for the dynamic environment through the diversity of crops including rice, pumpkin, long bean, job’s tear, sweet potato, hyacinth, maize, and cucumber [20].

Another way is to trade the type of fruits plan including Durio zibethinus Murr, and banana (Musa paradisiaca). Even Baduy people barre member of people to trade their paddy to market [21]. In this research will discover other indigenous community namely Urug community. Indigenous of Urug people dwell in Urug Bogor West Java Indonesia. Urug Indigenous knowledge has a crucial role in combating climate and environmental change for attaining community resilience like another traditional community in Indonesia. This community have an action for confronting disturbance such as climate variation and environment dynamics. (I have abolished about the concept of making handicrafts to increase income like reviewer sugest).

This research will not test again the previous research but try to trace another action for creating resilience base on the local community. There is numerous aspect of resilience will be investigated including how Urug people connect type traditional years in Urug people with animals clue for determining climate, season and life disturbances. The other is to investigate the relationship between social, cultural, ecology resiliences through preserving local paddy.

The character of this animal is dwelling in dry land and never lived in the watery ecosystem. As consequence as, the habitat of Gryllotalpa sp in dryland link to drying period. Urug people like Abah Ukat uttered that the season has connected to where Gryllotalpa sp life. The finding has similar with previous research, emerging of swarms of grasshoppers to land can indicate dry season [39]. It is supported that when cricketers are observed on the ground, and as a spider has closed their nest, meaning that poor rain season occurred because spider hates the moisture environment [40].

Abah Ukat as leader convinces that in this years, the season must be swelter period around 3-4 month. In fourth years, the person must be careful when person initiate activity because this year is vulnerable in social life. It is linked to the trait of Titinggi that this animal runs slightly but easy to stop when the personal touch this animal. As this symbol drag to real life, the person has to be cautious because the person who releases activity can go down rapidly like the behaviour Trigoniulus Corallines. Another name of years is Dal with symbol of wedus.

Aah Ukat reveals that in this years, the environment will predict the drying season. In 2017-2018 can be involved as Dal years in Urug people, the season in this years is hardly drought because in those years people have experienced drying period about 7-8 month. It is connected to the symbol of years, Ovis Aries like life in dry land rather than in watery zonation. Ovis Aries hate to dwell in watery land because of this animal life in drying area instead of settling in moisture environment. Even wedus (Ovis Aries) must be serviced by shepherds because Ovis Aries can’t gather meal naturally. Even Ovis aries can suffer from the ailment as the owner impel Ovis Aries in watery land. It indicates that the society in Urug use Ovis Aries based on the behaviour of Wedus which the animals enable to close the water. The impact is rain season unable to come in this years.

When cattle are calm and sleep very close to each other in a stable, refuses to go and graze on the nearest meadow, preferring to stay near the watering point, losing appetite for grass and salt, lack of interest in reproductive activities, and isolation from others from the herd to bull. Other drought-related indicators for livestock include weight loss on standing hair on the skin, defecating and urinating in a sitting position. It distinguishes to in Luganda societies where they use the animal's nature clue like movement and appearance of animals in temporary time like an insect for determining drying season [41]. The clue like the migration of animals also as a signal that it is drying season [42]. Another forecasting drying period can be observed through the sound of wild animals. When hearing loss sound of lion impact to drying period.

Conversely, as the heavy sound of lion indicates heavy rain. It similar when no singing of bird effect to rise drying period. On the contrary, If birds sing loudly, rain must become [43]. In other community of group, In Uganda, to forecast drying period exerts the migration of insects such as butterflies, red caterpillars, western honey bees, Apis mellifera Linnaeus (Hymenoptera: Apidae), bush crickets, and Ruspolia bailey Otte (Orthoptera: Tettigoniidae). The other years are Be years with symbol of years namely engkang-engkang (Aquarius remigis). The habitat of Aquarius remigis is in the river, swam area, wet rice paddy field, and lake. The character of this animal looks like severe tame for the person and close to human after human nearing to this animal, Aquarius remigis can move quickly and the people fail to capture.

The hardship life circumstances as a result as this symbol because Urug people believe there is a connection between the behaviour of Aquarius remigis as years symbol and life obstacle. Life perturbance in this section includes eco-catastrophe where the disaster can combat the farmer in this years. Besides that, insect attack is another life disturbance which the people can experience about it and effect to derive the adverse impact on life for people. Despite the people have conducted activity like agriculture suited with the time for cultivating but it can enable people to undergo hardship condition. If these years come to human, people must be cautious because the years is unfortunate. The farmer in this years will be dreadful because based on experience in this years, human has the burden to avoid life havoc. As Farmer can be combated by season, insect, and flooding.

Meaning that some societies still use animals to foretell bad condition in forthcoming. Furthermore, bancet (Occidozyga lima) or small frog is pictured for wau years. The location of life Occidozyga lima is two locations both in wetland and dry land. In this years, drying season and rainy period will come to the environment because Occidozyga lima can dwell in two locations. However, Occidozyga lima can’t live 24 hours in watery land like wet paddy filed, in a bank of the river, and lake. The biggest time is allocated in the dry land. In real fact environment, people action must be careful. If a person is entrepreneurship, the people can experience unworthy as well as impact to reduce funding as capital without garnish outcome. The last type of years name of Urug people is Jim Akhir with symbol Remis (Pilsbryoconcha exilis). In this years, traditional people fully convinced that the season will be the wet season for the long term as well as the storm and heavy rain season.

This animals unable to live in the dry season but remis settle in the watery ecosystem for 24 hours. In this years, the environment will abandon water because heavy rain season can’t be halted due to the habitat of Remis fully in a wet environment. The impact in this years is human can suffer from eco-disaster like flooding because rainwater finds abundant in the environment. Even water can find anywhere and people impossible experience lack of water in these years. In other location, the attitude of birds as symbol heavy rain which impacts to flooding. In Zunheboto district, society predicts heavy rain which results in flooding through Flood the height of the birds’ nests such as tailed wren babbler (Spelaeornis chocolatinus) and rusty-capped fulvetta (Alcippe dubia). Heavy rain and flooding combat environment when the bird builds the nest at the crown of trees which far from the body of water. On the contrary, the rain will halt as the bird construct their nest close to the ground [44].

Quechua and Aymara ethnic groups in Bolivia, people observed, for example, the location of the eggs of the leuque leuque (Vanellus resplendens, Andean lapwing) or the flowering patterns of Berberis commutata to predict the abundance of rain [45]. It is supported by another clue of nature like in Zimbabwe typically in Domboshawa community observe spider creating webs and appearing density spider population can be heavy wet season or rain hardly [46]. In Mizoram, northeastern India where crickets bring new soil out from the hole in rain season, it results in heavy rain can’t be halted [47]. There is a similar finding where the other researchers have discovered that bioindicator like animals is used as a clue to predict rainy season. Despite among of finding exert different animal for deciding the season. Traditional years and calendar which contain numerous of clue and guider for constraining to climate and environment stressor.

Calendar and years based on Urug societies knowledge as information about life obstacle including the kinds of season and climate. Directly, it can attain resilience communities to face life disturbances because can pass the vulnerability. Society more resilience to climate change when they have recognized the condition in forthcoming through their experience before it occurs. If cultural and traditional about it losing, it impacts to jump the level of vulnerability of the community. The cultural value of Urug which have practised it heredity can tackle disturbances in life. Indigenous peoples have long maintained two positions: first, that their homelands are being transformed irreversibly by climate change, and second, that they have unique contributions to make towards climate decision-making due to their extensive experiential knowledge [48]. It has been adapted and observed by their forefather in previous time to complete the information.

The usage of the symbol in each year base on their experience for confronting variation of dynamic environment and climate. Behalf of this, people in Urug can create a map of years or calendar base on the environment. The calendar of Urug people can be useful for reacting the best adaptation and mitigation of season and climate as well as other life challenges. It can enable the community to reduce the risk of climate and season. The meaning of the character of the symbol is not knowledge accidentally but the knowledge has related to the experiment of life, learning and action and observe the changing in the environment for long periods.

Directly, as the person knows to act for combating climate, it can create community resiliences for facing life disturbances due to they can foretell the occurrence occurs in next time future. It can be categorized as the ability to anticipate, absorb, accommodate, or recover from climate change [49]. Resilience for facing climate and environmental change can be attained because Urug societies have predicted season and life condition in forthcoming before the perturbances occur. Urug people can mitigate and adapt climate through their calendar of the year including Urug people can predict the proper year when the first year namely Alief.

People undergo this year's impact to react to triumph in life. For example, in this years can be mentioned as the best year for agricultural production. Farming activity which is released in this year's impact to produce abandon of yield. It must be bolstered that in this years, the rain is not hard and slight drying. Both of season comes but it is not treacherous for human. In second years, the season must be drying. It leads to the farmer can response back the situation through differing cultivating of paddies because it lack of water in the vicinity of the environment. As a person still overlook, the people require to adapt through providing water by way of irrigation. Another value is to anticipate the human from a shortage of water where the societies require to fulfil basic need like water. This guide can assist the people from avoiding scarcity of liquid. Meanwhile in thirdly years, drying period continue but the long periods of drying can be 3-4 four months. In this years, people still experience drying time but it more peril rather than previous years. It needs people more cautious because the drying can be more extreme in these years. The natural phenomena like this can attain resilience to confront environment obstacle because the people have prefered food, water, and other life sources to adapt to the situation.

It distinguishes to fourth of years where this year can be categorized as sorts of cautiousness years. There are some reason about this including unstable clime can be an adverse impact on people who they fail to cultivate paddies. Despite Urug societies have separated sorts of years and calender based on environment and experience, catastrophe may have come without prediction. The disaster also combats the people life quickly and hardly so the human doesn’t have opted that they must be unfortunately in this period. Another example is the human effort hardly to produce paddies in the field based on cultural and local knowledge but it can be unsuccessfully because there are unpredicted disturbances like insect attack. It similar to another endeavour of a person like the people become entrepreneurship, in this year they must stay on alert because there is unpredicted event can strike the people. Based on this year, Urug society safeguard like anticipate action in agriculture and other behaviour which is out of farming activity. Another year which impacts to human life is Dal years.

The drying period is severe hardly in this time because drying occurs more than 7 months or 8 months. It similar to when Wau years come, the drying time is long-lasting in this time. It refers to vanish the water and water spring can unfunction and halt. Peasant can’t pursue the production for staple food like rice and the water for irrigating can be declined. Based on the adverse impact, the circumstance in this years salvages human life because they increase their capacity to reduce the issue through they save the food. The basic fundamental of people in Urug, they hate to trade their paddies and rice. They only save it for eating. It makes them save from the perturbances life in Dal years. After passing the long swelter season. other years which is a peril for human are Be and jim akhir years. In be years, the human confronts to numerous life perturbances including flooding, drying, catastrophe, and other issues like ailment or disease as well as failure in some business. The circumstances have been recorded by people by observing each year, it attains resilience because they have a strategy to overcome this issues like they adopt more than livelihood sources as they work in agriculture for production basic food like rice but they also become vendor like trade fish in the traditional market and combine fish and rice when they planting in the field. In this action, they can obtain fortune from fishing and rice as a strategy for anticipating climate and environment perturbances.

3.2 Climate and culture resilience in local paddies

Local paddies have been protected by Urug societies amid the state of art in agriculture. Local paddies like Sri Kuning and Raja West have been cultivated by their forefather. It conserves and continues this variety of paddies in Urug societies. The behaviours pursue to a recent generation which the generation still farm local paddies. Meaning that the tradition for preserving local paddies genetic continue nowaday. The paddies can be categorized as long ages of paddies because the paddies yield can be harvested 6-7 month. The paddies have adapted for environment and climate because the paddies are planted since there is their forefather in Urug village. Despite the local paddy is longer for a time in production but it can abolish emission through resting land for letting the plant grow naturally. There is time for letting land where the people will not cultivate paddy and another kind of plants including small trees and bushes. Meanwhile, plantlike grass can absorb emission like carbon dioxide as well as the production of oxygens. The ages of local paddy variety are around 6-7 month. There is about 5-6 month in a year where the people have implied this action to ensure the land free from agriculture activity.

When the time for planting season has appeared, the farmer doesn’t require to applicate more an-organic fertilizer due to soil fertility have been ameliorated by nature naturally. The land will be abandoned by fertility naturally due to vegetation grow naturally before cultivating land again for farming. Farmer utilizes this fertilizer just for complementary which land severe lack of fertility. The adverse impact to applicate factory fertilizer can reduce the production a half in years, disturb nature mechanical, kill flora and fauna which is worth for maintenance of soil nutrient [50]. As a result, as, the sustainability of production rate can reach each year without plummeting of paddy production. However, in Abah Ukat perception, when people applicate factory fertilizer to land, soil can be refined the rate of fertility but the fertility due to adopt technology instead of improving soil nutrient naturally.

They are numerous demerits of intensive farming including it contributes to producing emission as well as replaced natural control process and resources, rendering them more vulnerable [51]. The other impact is to vanish local genetic variety convert to the number of modern varieties [52]. In Urug people, the person still persistence to farm local variety including ketan gadok, item, sri kuning, and raja wesi as local paddy variety. Meanwhile, the persistence principle is the primary measure of sustainability whereas an argument for resilience further requires demonstration that there were perturbations to which the system had to respond.

In one side, the usage of local varieties is a way for combating climate because local biodiversity like paddy has adapted for long periods and environment change. The paddy has been cultivated since the Urug people have been born.

Local variety also better adapted to the environment, better survive, produce high yields of phytochemically rich foods with fewer inputs including water, fertilization, and pest and disease control [53]. The local people also have learned from the dynamic of climate uncertainties so local people conserve local plant and animals [54]. Local people hesitate to adopt the other varieties because still unknown the advantage of the type of varieties. The other is there is a linkage between local paddy and cultural like traditional ritual and ceremonial.