© 2024 The authors. This article is published by IIETA and is licensed under the CC BY 4.0 license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
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The critical challenge of addressing water scarcity in Anbar Province, Iraq, necessitates the adoption of integrated water resource management strategies to meet the escalating demand for water. This study evaluates the potential of three scenarios over a 30-year period (2010–2040) to mitigate water shortages and enhance agricultural sustainability. Data were collected through site visits and extensive reviews of literature pertaining to water resource integration. The Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model, combined with Geographic Information Systems (GIS), was employed to simulate and analyse the scenarios. The baseline scenario relied exclusively on surface water resources, representing current conditions. The second scenario introduced treated wastewater for irrigation alongside surface water, while the third scenario incorporated groundwater resources in addition to surface water. Results indicated that the second and third scenarios could reduce unmet water demand by 36% and 84%, respectively, by 2040 when compared to the baseline. These findings underscore the effectiveness of integrating treated wastewater and groundwater resources to alleviate water shortages and support sustainable irrigation practices. Based on the analysis, it is recommended that a combined approach involving surface water, groundwater, and treated wastewater be implemented to ensure the sustainable management of water resources in Anbar Province. Such integration is anticipated to address water scarcity while enhancing agricultural productivity and long-term resilience to resource constraints in Iraq.
Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model, water scarcity, integrated water management, groundwater resources, treated wastewater, agricultural sustainability
Iraq faces a critical challenge in addressing its growing water demands, a problem projected to intensify in the coming years due to various environmental and anthropogenic factors [1]. Climate change has significantly exacerbated this issue, with rising temperatures, increased evaporation rates, and irregular rainfall patterns contributing to water shortages. These challenges are particularly severe in the agricultural and domestic sectors, which are under increasing pressure due to rapid population growth and the consequent expansion of agricultural activities [2].
The situation has been further aggravated by upstream countries, where the construction of dams and reservoirs has led to significant reductions in the flow of water into Iraq. This reduction in water availability underscores the urgent need for a comprehensive and strategic vision for water management. Such a vision must include the development and implementation of advanced irrigation techniques, the reduction of water losses, and the utilisation of non-conventional water resources, alongside ongoing research to optimise water management practices [3].
To address these challenges, this study evaluates the impact of integrating various water resource strategies on meeting regional water demands. Previous research has provided valuable insights into similar issues. For instance, a study conducted in Kano State examined the factors affecting water supply and demand through the analysis of statistical water data. The findings revealed that the inability to meet water demand was primarily due to inadequate water management strategies [4].
Based on the scrutinized literature, apparent was that many researchers attacked such problems numerically. Among them, for example, were the following:
Water resources management has a direct influence of the water sustainability through conducting measures to establish functional use of resources and economic promotion [8].
It is essential to take in consideration the quality of the surface and subsurface water within different areas, likewise assessing the seasonal variation of several factors such pH, DO, BOD, TDS [14]. Accordingly, several studies were achieved to map the spatial distribution of precipitation and groundwater reservoirs. Additionally, many researchers were involved in detecting the regional flow trends of groundwater as well as the capability of utilizing it [15]. Among them, for example, were the following:
The considered case study of Al-Anbar Province is located in the western part of Iraq. The Euphrates River constitutes a vital water source in this area. Anbar is bordered by Nineveh Province at the north. It is bordered by KSA at the south. It is bordered by Babylon, Karbala, and Najaf to the east. It is bordered by Jordan and Syria at the west. The diversity of water resources in the Anbar area plays a significant role in delineating proper and sustainable water resource management. This section focuses on the site visits that were carried out to the study area. The section expounds the processes of site visits and data assembly. Moreover, the section provides data processing and a site description, as follows:
3.1 Site visits and data assembly
To increase the reliability of the proposed methodology and ensure that the specified requirements are sufficient and correct, several site visits were carried out to Al-Anbar Province (Figure 1). Where observations were documented, photos and videos were captured, measurements were undertaken, and a semi-structured interview was carried out with the local residents of the area to survey their perspectives about the study area.
Figure 1. Study area location (ESRI imagery map)
3.2 Assembled data analysis and site description
The assembled data were analyzed, and the semi-structured interview responses were analyzed. Accordingly, a complete data picture about the study area was perceived, from which apparent was the following:
Concentrating on the water resources management, it encompasses several stages (i.e., estimating the needed amount of water for the domestic and agricultural sectors, as well as the yearly water coming from the Euphrates River, as well as the treated wastewater and groundwater).
Focusing on the numerical investigations, 3 scenarios were replicated (i.e., the 1st scenario implements surface water and was referred to as the “reference scenario," the 2nd scenario integrates treated water for irrigation, and the 3rd scenario integrates groundwater). This was achieved to simulate a 30-year period, 2010-2040.
This section elaborates on the available numerical models and the selected model while expounding its theoretical background, its calibration, and validation processes. Moreover, the section particularizes the numerical simulation process as follows:
5.1 Available numerical models
This section provides a summary of the available models that are analogous to WEAP. The section focuses on their identities and applications within the field of water resource management, as follows:
5.2 Historical and theoretical backgrounds of WEAP
WEAP was selected to be implemented, as it is worldwide accepted and was applied to many problems and proved its capability to resolve them. Moreover, it has a friendly interface and acquires limited data sets to initiate its calculation. Accordingly, it does not acquire further assumptions for unavailable data, which is the case in Iraq (Figure 2). The WEAP model is selected in this study as a comprehensive tool for planning and policy analysis. The most important advantage of this tool is its applicability to all individual watersheds, complex transboundary river basin systems, or agricultural and municipal systems. The model has a great ability to simulate a wide range of engineering and natural components of systems, including water demand analyses, water conservation, hydropower generation, water quality and pollution tracking, water allocation priorities, vulnerability assessments, stormwater runoff, baseflow, groundwater reuse from rainfall, ecosystem requirements, and reservoir operations. Consequently, it was selected to predict the annual water supply in the Euphrates.
Figure 2. WEAP interface
Historically, WEAP was established in 1988, where it is being boosted by the U.S. Center of Stockholm in Somerville, Massachusetts.
Theoretically, WEAP augments groundwater flow module "USGS MODFLOW" and surface water quality module "US EPA QUAL2K". It is based on a hypothetical time-step water balance. It considers both demand and withdrawal [30].
WEAP is based on an efficient algorithm that solves water distribution problems while taking site demand into consideration and integrating the hydrological units (i.e., rain runoff and groundwater) [31]. It is capable of replicating climate change. It is employed by researchers and planners worldwide. It replicates water demand, such as runoff, as well as infiltration and crop irrigation requirements. This is attained by altering the policy, as well as climate and technology.
5.3 WEAP internal computation
This section expounds WEAP internal computation.
Demand / Site Inflow DS = Trans Link Outflow (Src,DS) (1)
$\begin{gathered} Annual\ Demand\ DS = \sum_{B r} (\text {Total Activity Level } \text { “Br"x Water Use Rate Br) }\end{gathered}$ (2)
GSe = (hd)(lw)(Ad)(Sy) (3)
5.4 Modeling Anbar numerically
Before implementing the model, it was calibrated by tuning it parameters to force it produce data similar to the observed data. Moreover, it was verified against real data. Confident with the calibration and verification results, it was implemented to simulate Anbar Providence. This is presented as follows:
5.4.1 Calibrating and verifying WEAP
WEAP was calibrated against actual data sets. It was then verified against another actual data set. These data were assembled during the site visits.
5.4.2 Applying WEAP to simulate Anbar
Confident with the calibration and validation results, WEAP was utilized to simulate Anbar, where the water demand was predicted, in the domestic and agricultural sectors in Ramadi and Fallujah, over 30 years (i.e., 2010-2040). WEAP simulated 3 scenarios. The 1st scenario was the reference scenario of the existing condition that utilized surface water only, while the 2nd scenario implied the additional use of treated wastewater. However, the 3rd scenario implied the additional utilization of groundwater.
5.4.3 Preparing WEAP input data
Regarding WEAP input requirements, Euphrates discharge is measured from two control stations, and the portion of each city was acquired from the Directorate water resources planning department and they encompassed the following:
Figure 4 elaborates the implementation methodology of WEAP. Moreover, the figure clarifies scenario development and the managing strategies for assessing and planning future water.
Figure 3. Well distribution based on water amount, salinity and utilization capability
Figure 4. WEAP assessment and planning
Furthermore, Table 1 elaborates the Ramadi and Fallujah share based on the annual flow of the Euphrates River in Anbar during 2010 to 2024. These data were extracted from Al-Qaim Station.
Table 1. Euphrates annual flow and share of Ramadi and Fallujah (during 2010-2040)
Inflows to Area (Cubic Meter) |
|||
Year |
Euphrates Flow |
Year |
Euphrates Future Flow |
2010 |
1,669,338,800 |
2024 |
1,647,753,000 |
2011 |
1,654,688,000 |
2025 |
1,630,724,000 |
2012 |
2,308,744,000 |
2026 |
1,613,689,000 |
2013 |
1,719,019,000 |
2027 |
1,596,030,000 |
2014 |
1,758,439,000 |
2028 |
1,579,002,000 |
2015 |
847,372,100 |
2029 |
1,561,339,000 |
2016 |
1,716,500,000 |
2030 |
1,543,998,000 |
2017 |
1,491,013,000 |
2031 |
1,526,652,000 |
2018 |
1,083,261,300 |
2032 |
1,509,310,000 |
2019 |
1,625,674,000 |
2033 |
1,491,965,000 |
2020 |
1,682,757,000 |
2034 |
1,474,612,000 |
2021 |
1,689,065,000 |
2035 |
1,457,271,000 |
2022 |
1,679,286,000 |
2036 |
1,439,925,000 |
2023 |
1,664,460,000 |
2037 |
1,422,266,000 |
2038 |
1,405,238,000 |
||
2039 |
1,387,579,000 |
||
2040 |
1,370,551,000 |
Moreover, during 2024 to 2040, the forecasts for Ramadi and Fallujah share were extracted from Euphrates annual flows, where Figure 5 presents the utilized forecast of Euphrates River water flows till 2040.
Figure 5. Euphrates annual flow share of Ramadi and Fallujah cities (During 2010-2040)
Results were obtained, analyzed, and represented on graphs in Figures 5 to 10, as follows:
Figure 5 shows the flows of the Euphrates River from 2010 to 2040. The results indicate a continuous decrease in the river’s discharge in the future due to climate change, drought, and incorrect water policy between countries. Figure 6 presents the future water demand for the 1st reference scenario in Fallujah and Ramadi within the domestic sector. The figure also indicates the continuous increase in the amount of water required for the two regions due to the increase in population growth, urban expansion, and climate change, and thus it prompts us to think about finding solutions and alternatives to cover the demand in the future. Figure 7 presents the future water demand for the 1st reference scenario in Fallujah and Ramadi within domestic and agricultural sectors. Therefore, we find a large difference in the amount of water required between the two sectors, which indicates a great risk of water scarcity, as the agricultural sector consumes the largest amount of water due to the increase in agricultural areas and the large agricultural consumption of agricultural crops and their dependence on surface water only in this region. Figure 8 highlights the future unmet demand for the 1st reference scenario in Fallujah and Ramadi within domestic and agricultural sectors. Where the WEAP model shows us future signals in the amount of unmet demand for water for the domestic and agricultural sectors, and thus it gives us numbers and predictive quantities of future water needs, and this large difference indicates the trend towards using alternatives to surface water to reduce the deficit and the outlook for water in the future. Figure 9 illustrates the flow and actual water consumption, along with the treated water usage in the urban domestic sector of Ramadi and Fallujah, where sewage networks are utilised for treatment under the 3rd scenario. This scenario contributes to support water management and reduce the unmet demand for water in the reference scenario, and thus there will be future planning to rationalize water and benefit from treating this water in the and agricultural sectors. Figure 10 shows the water demand of the 3rd scenario as an alternative to reduce unmet This scenario is one of the most important solutions for using alternative water to cover the unmet demand, as groundwater is one of the most important alternatives to surface water, especially in the agricultural sector, as it consumes the most water. Therefore, the results indicate the necessity of using this scenario at present and in the future. The figures highlighted the importance of putting forward a future plan to cover water shortage under water scarcity risks.
Figure 6. 1st scenario results (reference case) of domestic sector demand for Ramadi and Fallujah (During 2010-2040)
Figure 7. 1st scenario results (reference case) of domestic and agricultural sectors demand for Ramadi and Fallujah (During 2010-2040)
Figure 8. 1st scenario results (reference case) of unmet demand for domestic and agricultural sectors for Ramadi and Fallujah (During 2010-2040)
Figure 9. 2nd scenario results (treated water) of Inflow vs. consumption for Ramadi and Fallujah domestic sectors (During 2010-2040)
Figure 10. 3rd scenario results (groundwater use) of unmet demand for water for agricultural sector for Ramadi and Fallujah (During 2010-2040)
Based on the present investigation, apparent was the following:
Based on the deduced conclusions, the following recommendations were suggested:
Employ modern irrigation to achieve sustainability in the agricultural sector such, such as using of drip and sprinkler irrigation methods, as they are among the latest methods in rationalizing water consumption, especially in the water needs of plants, and avoiding irrigation methods.
The Anbar Province, the Anbar Provincial Agriculture Directorate, the Planning Department, the Water Resources Directorate, the Anbar Investment Commission, the Iraqi National Center, and the Department of Statistics all supported this study.
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