Method of Analysis of the Reasons and Consequences of Traffic Accidents in Uzbekistan Cities

Method of Analysis of the Reasons and Consequences of Traffic Accidents in Uzbekistan Cities

Jamshid Abdunazarov* Kudratulla Azizov Ilkhomjon Shukurov 

Department of Ground Transport Systems, Jizzakh Polytechnic Institute, Jizzakh 130100, Uzbekistan

Department of Construction and Operation of Roads, Tashkent Institute for the Design, Construction and Operation of Roads, Tashkent 100060, Uzbekistan

Department of Urban Planning, Moscow State University of Civil Engineering, Moscow 129337, Russia

Corresponding Author Email: 
jamshid@jizpi.uz
Page: 
483-490
|
DOI: 
https://doi.org/10.18280/ijsse.100407
Received: 
13 July 2020
|
Revised: 
11 August 2020
|
Accepted: 
20 August 2020
|
Available online: 
31 August 2020
| Citation

© 2020 IIETA. This article is published by IIETA and is licensed under the CC BY 4.0 license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).

OPEN ACCESS

Abstract: 

The article is devoted to the problems in the analysis of road safety in the cities of Uzbekistan, specifically addressing issues with the occurrence of traffic accidents and the analysis of their statistics. The purpose of the article is to study the relationship between violations of traffic rules and the occurrence of traffic accidents in Uzbekistan. This study used the statistical method of correlation analysis and revealed a linear correlation between factors such as the number of traffic violations – the number of traffic accidents; the number of traffic violations – the number of fatalities from traffic accidents; the number of traffic violations – the number injured by traffic accidents; the number of traffic violations – the number of traffic accidents with economic damage. To determine the degree of correlation between the number of violations of traffic rules, the number of road traffic accidents and their consequences, the authors used the coefficient of determination. The results of the study showed that the number of traffic violations is negatively correlated with the number and consequences of traffic accidents. The authors argue that the methodology for registering a traffic accident in Uzbekistan requires modification and that a traffic accident is affected not only by violations of the rules of the road for drivers but also by other factors, such as the design of elements of the road traffic network.

Keywords: 

correlation analysis, road safety, traffic accident, traffic violations, Uzbekistan

1. Introduction

The number of road traffic deaths continues to climb, reaching 1.35 million worldwide a year. The rates of road traffic deaths relative to the size of the world’s population have stabilized in recent years, but 93% of the world's fatalities on roads occur in low- and middle-income countries, even though these countries have only approximately 60% of the world's vehicles. Road traffic accidents cost most countries 3% of their gross domestic product. More than half of all road traffic deaths are among vulnerable road users: pedestrians, cyclists, and motorcyclists. The data presented in “The Global Status Report on Road Safety 2018” of the World Health Organization show that progress has been achieved in important areas such as legislation, vehicle standards and improving access to post-crash care [1, 2].

The statistics show that an increasing number of traffic accidents is one of the initial problems for all countries. This is particularly true for those countries in which economies are developing progressively, called developing countries, such as Uzbekistan. The population of Uzbekistan is more than 34 mln [3, 4]. and the length of its road network is 184,783 km, of which public roads represent 42,530 km, internal local roads represent 71,324 km, and city streets and roads represent 69,229 km. Public roads are the main highways in this country [5, 6].

According to the Pulitzer Center on Crisis Reporting, Uzbekistan has the lowest rates of road mortality among the countries of the region; for every 100,000 people, there are 11.32 deaths, and losses from road accidents represent 2.8% of GDP; although this is one of the lowest indicators, according to experts, the losses from traffic accidents represent substantial amounts [7].

The study of the causes, circumstances and conditions of traffic accidents plays a critical role in the development of measures for the prevention of such accidents in road transport [8, 9]. Any accident results not only from not observing a traffic rule but also from deviations from the optimal conditions for the driver–car–road–pedestrian–environment system.

2. Material Analysis

Violation of the traffic rules of the road is dangerous because there is a relationship between the number of violations and the number of traffic accidents, as shown by a number of studies by foreign scientists such as Zhan et al. [10, 11], who studied the risk factors associated with traffic violations and the seriousness of accidents in China. Harrington and McBride [12] studied traffic violations by sex, type, and age in California, USA. Pesic et al. [13] studied the possibility of improving road safety based on an analysis of a database on traffic violations in Serbia. Rimmö and Åberg [14] examined the issue of traffic rule violations and Swedish drivers' errors. Azemsha et al. [15] analysed the data of traffic accidents and their causes in the city of Gomel. Ayuso et al. [16] studied the effect of traffic violations on the cost of accidents with victims in Spain. Yusupov [17] conducted a multivariate analysis of traffic violations by drivers of vehicles in Tajikistan. Ilyina et al. [18] analysed the accident rate and the reasons for drivers violating traffic rules in the Penza region. Elliott et al. [19] studied the issues of errors and irregularities regarding the risk of motorcyclist accidents. Mesken et al. [20] examined the issue of interpersonal impairment, speeding and their relationship with traffic accidents in Finland; Parker et al. [21] investigated driving errors, traffic violations and their participation in traffic accidents. Liu et al. [22] claim that the penalty point strategy exhibits deterrent and binding effects; however, the penalty fine strategy does not show the expected effects where can subsequently reduce traffic accidents.

3. Analysis Method

We have analysed data from the official database of violations of traffic rules of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Republic of Uzbekistan. For the period from 2016 to 2019, approximately 17 million traffic violations were noted. It was found that not all data from the traffic violations database can be used to improve road safety.

Therefore, it is necessary to analyse and determine which data on offences are valid or relevant for further analysis and the determination of measures. Relevant data are those that can be used for analysis, to directly or indirectly draw conclusions, and to help propose appropriate measures to improve road safety.

To determine relationships or interdependencies, statistical methods such as the regression analysis of traffic accidents and other indicators of road safety (traffic accidents and their consequences) and other known methods for the analysis of road safety can be used, depending on the specific data being analysed.

The types of data regarding violations of traffic rules are highlighted as follows:

(1). Information related to the offender: name and surname, gender, date and place of birth, address, identification number, as well as other identification data that determine and accurately identify the offender.

(2). Data associated with the place of the offence: the place, road, road sections, intersection, address with house number, etc.

(3). Data relating to the time the crime was committed: the year, month, day of the week and hour at the crime was committed.

(4). Data related to the crime committed: type of crime or legal qualification of the crime and resulting punishment.

(5). Other data - identification of the offence, information about the patrol officer who registered the offence at the police station.

To more accurately determine the relationship between the number of traffic violations and the number and consequences of traffic accidents, a correlation analysis was carried out for 14 regions of Uzbekistan.

4. Research Results

According to the General Directorate of Road Traffic Safety of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Republic of Uzbekistan, on average, 2.0 thousand people die every year on highways [23]. Although in the republic over the past 10 years, the average number of vehicles has increased by 58% and the population by 16%, the total length of roads has increased by only 4.0 thousand km, or 2.1%.

The total number of accidents and victims in the Republic of Uzbekistan are shown in Figure 1 and Figure 2.

General statistics show that in recent years, traffic accidents and the number of injuries has been decreasing in Uzbekistan. However, experts believe that the actual situation is worse than shown by the statistics. If pay attention the number of traffic accidents in Figure 2 was the highest in 1990 and 1991, after which the number dropped sharply. This is due to the fact that in 1991 Uzbekistan became an independent country and since this year the methods of providing data on traffic accidents have changed and today this data is not available in the public domain even in Global status report on road safety of World Health Organization. And the data provided by the official authorities does not show the whole situation on the roads. When analysing road accidents by region, it can be seen that the situation has been improving over the years in Tashkent city and in the Tashkent region. However, in the Surkhandarya, Samarkand, Jizzakh, Bukhara, Namangan and Navoi regions, the number of accidents has held steady or increased (Figure 3). One of the reasons for the sharp decrease in traffic accidents in Tashkent is explained by the 2017 installation of photo and video recording systems at 115 intersections of the city, accompanied by a mechanism for imposing fines on drivers for violating the rules of the road. This technique is used by a number of foreign countries to prevent violation of traffic rules and, as a consequence, reduce traffic accidents [25-28].

Figure 1. Statistics for traffic accidents in the Republic of Uzbekistan for the period 2009-2011

Figure 2. Information about traffic accidents on roads in the Republic of Uzbekistan for the period 1980 ÷ 2010 [23, 24]: 1– the total number of accidents; 2– the number of victims in accidents; 3– the number of deaths in traffic accidents

Figure 3. The number of traffic accidents in the regions of Uzbekistan

Table 1. Statistical data on types of accidents in the Republic of Uzbekistan

Years

Collision

Rollover

Hit a standing vehicle

Total traffic accidents

Died

Injured

Total traffic accidents

Died

Injured

Total traffic accidents

Died

Injured

2019

2373

616

2662

408

138

407

133

40

134

2018

2354

664

2797

423

183

404

117

35

115

2017

2228

616

2483

494

198

483

109

29

108

2016

2242

642

2500

504

212

478

120

31

129

2015

4232

1124

4752

833

314

817

184

61

178

2014

4206

1193

4892

808

357

795

179

53

171

 

Years

Hit an obstacle

Hit a pedestrian

Hit a cyclist

Total traffic accidents

Died

Injured

Total traffic accidents

Died

Injured

Total traffic accidents

Died

Injured

2019

440

146

452

4305

929

3530

729

191

563

2018

423

149

442

4852

1035

4042

682

176

531

2017

359

134

339

4096

824

3417

1044

236

850

2016

380

113

374

4207

877

3509

979

248

777

2015

759

246

749

7815

1723

6336

1472

384

1128

2014

761

269

775

8453

1810

6959

1417

353

1121

Years

Hit a horse-drawn transport

Hitting an animal

Another type of traffic accident

Total traffic accidents

Died

Injured

Total traffic accidents

Died

Injured

2019

36

5

34

8

4

6

85

2018

40

5

40

4

1

4

95

2017

27

4

26

7

4

5

86

2016

34

4

37

3

0

3

87

2015

72

11

70

16

8

12

153

2014

75

13

70

6

1

7

158

A detailed analysis of the types of accidents showed that over the past 6 years, the highest percentage is for pedestrian collisions, followed by vehicle collisions and then by collisions with cyclists. The figure shows that in 2019, 929 people were killed in accidents involving a pedestrian; 616 people in accidents involving vehicle collisions; and 191 people in accidents involving a cyclist (Table 1). Table 2 shows the approximate share of traffic violations by type.

In the Republic of Uzbekistan in recent years, traffic violations have sharply increased (Figure 4). This can be explained by the use of photo and video recording systems, which increased ability to identify violations of the rules of the road and to determine the violator. In 2019, there were 4,881,457 traffic violations, while those violations revealed by the computerized control system amounted to 1,227,844, representing a 25% increase in cited traffic violations (Table 3 and Figure 5).

Table 2. Percentage of traffic violations by type [29]

Type of traffic violation

%

Crossroads Violation

15.8

Driving technically faulty vehicle

15.6

Failure to overtake

12.0

Failure to comply with traffic signs

7.5

Over speed limit

7.2

Violation of the rules for parking, stopping or starting

6.5

Driving on the left side of the road

3.5

Use of cars for personal gain

2.5

Driving while intoxicated

2.0

Violation of the rules for using lighting devices

1.6

Violation of passenger transportation rules

1.1

Violation of the rules for passage of railway crossings

0.6

Blinding headlights despite an oncoming car

0.5

Violation of cargo transportation rules

0.4

Violation of the rules for towing vehicles

0.2

Other traffic violations

23

Total

100

Figure 4. Traffic violation statistics

Figure 5. Statistics on traffic violations identified, 2019

Table 3. The share of traffic violations by causes in the Republic of Uzbekistan, 2019

Reason for traffic violation

Quantity, pcs.

%

Failure to comply with road signs and road markings

2383182

48.82

Not using seat belts

1526803

31.28

Traffic violations by pedestrians

354658

7.27

Lack of documents

198018

4.06

Failure to comply with the speed limit

136334

2.79

Parking in the wrong place (3.27 sign)

63327

1.30

Ignoring traffic signals

61989

1.27

Lack of insurance

55426

1.14

Drunk driving

28098

0.58

Using a cell phone while driving

25037

0.51

Installation of sound and lighting equipment

9911

0.20

Window tinting

9219

0.19

Non-compliance with the requirements of the traffic police

7217

0.15

Refusal to take a blood alcohol test

5595

0.11

Oncoming traffic, creating a state of emergency

4530

0.09

Railroad crossing violation

4344

0.09

Use of defective vehicles

2390

0.05

Violation of cargo transportation rules

1330

0.03

Freight and passenger transportation without a license

1082

0.02

Group movement

1031

0.02

Monitor (display) installation in the vehicle

846

0.02

Damage to traffic control equipment

741

0.02

Permission to drive drunk drivers

263

0.01

Using a car for personal gain

86

0.002

Total

4881 457

100

When comparing traffic violations (1970 and 2019), there is a large difference in types. Of course, there are a number of “modern” violations of traffic rules that did not exist in 1970 and thus cannot be compared like using a cell phone while driving, installing a monitor (display), lack of insurance and not using seat belts. However, there are also standard violations of traffic rules, and the influence of traffic police efforts to ensure road safety can be observed. Table 4 presents a comparison of the number of traffic rules and the number of violations for ten violation types. Currently, an acute question persists regarding the “Failure to comply with road signs and road markings” by drivers and pedestrians, where the number reaches 48.8% and 7.7%, respectively.

The registered number of violations of traffic rules due to excess speed represents 7.2% of the total number of detected violations, and the largest number of accidents is due to speeding – 48%. A similar comparison can be made for types of violations such as driving on the left-hand side of the road when overtaking (3.5 and 17%, respectively) and violations of the rules for crossing intersections (15.8 and 23%). This situation can be explained by insufficient control over the streets and roads to ensure that drivers observe traffic rules. Although similar statistics can be seen for the Republic of Uzbekistan, they are not available in publicly available resources.

An assessment of the correlation and regression relationships between the number of traffic violations and traffic accidents is shown in Figure 6-13 and Table 5-7.

Table 4. Comparative traffic violation data

Types of traffic violations

1970 y.

2019 y.

1

Failure to comply with the speed limit

7.2

2.79

2

Parking in the wrong place

6.5

1.30

3

Ignoring traffic signals

15.8

1.27

4

Oncoming traffic, creating a state of emergency

12

0.09

5

Railroad crossing violation

15.8

0.09

6

Use of defective vehicles

15.6

0.05

7

Violation of cargo transportation rules

0.4

0.03

8

Freight and passenger transportation without a licence

1.1

0.02

9

Using a car for personal gain

2.5

0.002

10

Drunk driving

2

0.61

Table 5. Correlation between the number of traffic violations and traffic accidents (by region)

Variable

№ 1

Variable

№2

Linear correlation function between variable 1 and variable 2

Correlation coefficient

F test

t test

Number of traffic violations

The number of traffic accidents

y=342.6x+48238

R² = 0.478

F=50.4

t=1.20

The number of fatalities from traffic accident

y=661.7x +16836

R² = 0.085

F=5.11

t=3.09

The number of injured from traffic accidents

y=359.5x + 49477

R² = 0.632

F=94.1

t=1.74

The number of accidents with economic damage

y=-5377.4x+433679

R²= 0.2083

F=13.7

t=1.15

Table 6. Comparison of traffic violations and traffic accidents (by republic)

Years

Traffic violations

Traffic accident

Dead

Injured

Damage to property1

2016

3 385 051

10 212

2 496

9 845

8 885

2017

3 725 616

10 044

2 473

9 637

9 619

2018

4 347 824

8 990

2 262

8 458

10 951

2019

6 109 301

8 588

2 096

7 943

12 598

1Sources: Traffic police of the Republic of Uzbekistan and *Fund for guaranteeing payments on compulsory civil liability insurance of vehicle owners.

Table 7. Correlation between the number of traffic violations and road accidents (by republic)

Variable

№ 1

Variable

№2

Linear correlation function between variable 1 and variable 2

Correlation coefficient

F test

t test

Number of traffic violations

The number of traffic accidents

y = -1389x + 2E+07

R² = 0.826

F=9.53

t=4.1

The number of fatalities from traffic accident

y = -6158x + 2E+07

R² = 0.923

F=24.2

t=6.4

The number of injured from traffic accidents

y = -1213x + 2E+07

R² = 0.843

F=10.8

t=4.5

The number of accidents with economic damage

y = 725.5x - 3E+06

R² = 0.953

F=41.3

t=-2.7

Figure 6. The relationship between traffic violations and traffic accidents

Figure 7. The relationship between traffic violations and deaths from traffic accidents

Figure 8. The relationship between traffic violations and injured from traffic accidents

Figure 9. The relationship between traffic violations and traffic accidents with economic damage

Figure 10. The relationship between traffic violations and traffic accidents

Figure 11. The relationship between traffic violations and deaths from traffic accidents

Figure 12. The relationship between traffic violations and injured from traffic accidents

Figure 13. The relationship between traffic violations and traffic accidents with economic damage

5. Discussions

By analysing data on the number of traffic violations and the number of traffic accidents, we concluded that during the analysed period, the number of traffic violations increased and the number of traffic accidents decreased.

In 2019, the number of traffic violations increased by 80.5% compared with 2016, while over the same period, the number of traffic accidents decreased by 19%. Many researchers studying other countries [29-31] have investigated similar trends but have drawn exactly the opposite conclusions.

Other researchers have shown that there is a connection between traffic violations and traffic accidents, which means that a decrease in the number of traffic violations will lead to a decrease in the number of traffic accidents. They then conclude that eliminating the most frequent traffic violations could lead to a significant reduction in the number of traffic accidents and their consequences.

Additionally, other studies have shown that the number of fatal accidents and other consequences is correlated with the number of registered or detected violations of traffic rules.

6. Conclusions

To determine the degree of correlation between the number of violations of traffic rules and the number of road traffic accidents and their consequences, we used the coefficient of determination (R2). To determine whether the correlation was positive or negative, a correlation coefficient (R) was used.

The analysis revealed the following:

(1). The number of violations of traffic rules is negatively correlated with the number and consequences of traffic accidents;

(2). The number of traffic violations has a strong negative correlation with the number of road traffic accidents and with the number of road traffic accidents with only material damage;

(3). There is a negative correlation of average strength between the number of traffic violations and the number of road traffic accidents with victims;

(4). There is a weak negative correlation between the number of traffic violations and the number of fatalities in traffic accidents;

(5). Since the coefficient of determination does not exceed 0.9, the so-called “single factor” does not exist.

The number of traffic violations is not the only factor affecting the number and consequences of traffic accidents. A relationship was found between the number of traffic rule violations detected and the consequences of accidents.

Thus, planning and development, which should provide the methodological foundations for ensuring traffic safety when designing street-road networks, is one of the most important measures that can reduce the number of violations and, consequently, improve road safety in Uzbekistan. These types of changes will incur financial costs but will save lives and provide other benefits such as increasing the speed and efficiency of road transport.

The authors recommend that the responsible authorities modernize the registration procedure, in particular switching to the electronic registration of accidents, and the analysis of their statistics.

Acknowledgment

This work was supported by the Project IZ-2020022810 - Development of "Safe Road" software, funded by the Ministry of innovative development of the Republic of Uzbekistan.

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