Environmental Sustainability Index for Colombia: Implications and Considerations for Its Calculation

In strictly economic terms, development was initially determined by the dynamics of the per capita income of the inhabitants of a country, this perspective left aside elements that are currently of great relevance such as poverty, discrimination, unemployment, as well as the distribution of resources [1]. Although there is currently no consensus on the term development, there is no doubt about the evolution that it has presented in recent years [2], the first contributions has been made by determining that the proposal of development is to reduce poverty, inequality, as well as unemployment. Even conceiving a development scenario is technically impossible, when none of these three variables shows improvement, despite showing increases in GDP per capita. Within the process of adding more elements and depth to the concept, Sen [3] states that development could be considered as a mechanism for access to the real freedoms that people can experience. Although from the initial definitions, development implied a growth in GDP per capita. According to Sen [3], this indicator is clearly important for society, to the extent that it enhances the freedoms achieved by people. At this point it should be noted that freedom also depend on other elements such as the inclusion of education and health. It should be noted that Sen's contributions are the basis for calculating the Human Development Index (HDI) that since 1990 has been calculated by the United Nations Development Program.

Without a doubt, economic development is a multidimensional concept that includes an important set of variables. It should be noted that within the most relevant elements that take place when understanding it, the following stand out: Structural transformations, human development, democratic participation and good governance, well-being and freedoms, and environmental sustainability [4]. Although most of the pillars under which development is circumscribed have been examined in depth, economic development from the perspective of environmental sustainability has been one of the least analyzed elements. For this reason, it will be studied in more detail in this investigation.

Sustainable development is defined as a prevailing need in today's world, where excessive production levels are exhausting the planet's ability to renew itself. Faced with this dynamic, the Global Footprint Network [5] makes annual estimates on resource management, determining that the consumption patterns presented in 2019 require 1.75 planets to be guaranteed naturally.

In other hand, “during the last 30 years of the century, the global average temperature increased by about 1.8˚C, representing the same increase as that which occurred in the previous 70 years” [6]. These new geoclimatic “conditions will define the production and consumption decisions of the economy, generating among others: i. decrease in the sources that generate water, ii. modification in the pattern of precipitations, iii. extreme climatic events, iv. rise in sea level, which ultimately have repercussions on the well-being and v. quality of life of human beings, and therefore on their level of development” [6].

In this sense, the objective of the research is to build an environmental sustainability index for Colombia, which allows understanding the state of the multiple variables that intervene in its dynamics using the methodology of Cook et al. [7] that defines as central variables the behavior of the energy sector, garbage and waste management, air quality and pollution, water quality, land use for agricultural and fish farming activities, and biodiversity of forests and soils.

This article is composed of a first section where it is contextualized about the challenges of today's society in terms of sustainability, secondly, it presents the methodological components of the index calculation. In the third section, the results are presented in terms of percentage measurement for the period 2012 to 2017 to finally address the results, discussion and conclusions.

Based on an exploratory-type quantitative methodology, the index is presented, by using a set of categories that allow the determination of sustainability over time.

For the development of the index, the variables described in the following Table 1 were considered; each one of these variables registers its veracity from the different sources of information from which the data was obtained so that any replication exercise allows similar results; additionally, to the brief description of each indicator, facilitating the reader's recognition and importance of the values presented.

Due to the difficulty in obtaining data in similar periods, but with the aim of presenting results under a representative historical record, a period between 2012 and 2017 was adopted, facilitating the operation but also the veracity of the information.

Allowing the evaluation of progress towards sustainable development based on an environmental sustainability index, makes it easier for developing countries such as Colombia to recognize where the gaps are or what the most latent needs are and, based on this, guide government initiatives. and other interested entities for a collective, conscious and more effective management process.

Table 1. Variables for index development

The set of complementary variables, show the following individual result, for the defined period of analysis. It is important to mention that during the period 2012 to 2017, the budget invested in Colombia for the development of social policies and with a focus on sustainability has doubled. During that period there was additionally a governmental stability that allowed for a more in-depth analysis than could be done in any other government. Additionally, in that period of time the transition in the peace process was generated giving more possibilities to think in better ways to achieve sustainability.

Energetic behavior

Intensity of coal use, this parameter is increasing in most of the analysis period, reaching a maximum value of 86,091 CO₂ emissions (kt). After 2015, the variables decreased, reaching 85,187 in 2017. For many experts, this indicator is an important proxy of the proper dynamics of the productive sector. The intensive use of electricity in economic activities can be understood in various ways. On the one hand, its growing behavior is a witness to the industrialization process that the country is facing, while on the other hand, when its behavior is relatively constant, it can give clues about the incorporation of other energies into the productive system. In the case of Colombia, this indicator shows a relative downward trend.

Colombia is a country rich in energy, both in fossil and in renewable resources. Energy exploitation and production depends on 93% of fossil fuels, while the rest comes from renewable energies such as hydropower and biomass [13]. The high dependence on hydroelectric resources puts the country at periodic risk of scarcity and high energy prices, as evidenced in 1992 and 1993 with the phenomenon of El Niño [13] and these situations seem to be more significant because of the process of climate change that we face [14]. Of the dynamics of renewable energy generation in Colombia, the peak achieved in 2009 stands out, which had an average growth between 2012 and 2017 of 5.9%.

Waste management

The increase of waste presents a growing behavior and it is natural that the variable grows as a consequence of the population migration to the large cities of the country, in addition to the increase in consumption patterns as a consequence of the growth of the middle class. Although the growth of waste is normal, developing policies that improve recycling standards and make more use of resources are necessary. In this sense, the Ministry of the Environment in Colombia highlights paper and cardboard (53%) as the most recycled material, followed by metals (25%), glass (13%), plastic (7%) and timber (2%). The 8.1% registered in 2017 (graph 5) represented 500,000 tons. Finally, finishing the resource management block, for the analysis period (2012-2017), the percentage of waste sent to the landfill was constant and always located at a value of 92%.

Air quality and pollution

Greenhouse gas emissions derived from human activities, which accumulate in the planet's atmosphere, are the main cause of climate change. For this reason, the international scientific community grouped in the intergovernmental panel on climate change has developed standardized methodologies that allow the state of the release of particles into the air to be determined in each of the countries [15], centered on four pillars: energy, waste, industrial processes and product use, and agriculture, forestry, and other land uses. Once you have access to information, appropriate intervention is allowed through policies and timely mitigation measures. There is a decreasing trend in the level of emissions for the analysis period, where the average decrease rates for the 6 years are -14.6%, -13.0% and -4.0%, respectively. On the other hand, PM 10 emissions show a decrease of 1.0% on average for the analysis period, carbon monoxide emissions show growth from 2007 to 2010, where they subsequently decrease continuously until reaching 10234 tons in 2017. The emission of greenhouse gas is perhaps the most mediatic variable when monitoring the phenomenon of global warming, it is for this reason that there is a commitment on the part of all countries seeking to control their behavior in order to achieve the goal of not increase the temperature more than 2 degrees Celsius until the year 2050 [15]. From 1990 to 2017, greenhouse gas emissions have grown by an average of 2.01%. Carbon intensity represents the relative imbalance of greenhouse gas emissions in GDP. When variations occur, these reflect changes in the mix between energy and fuel used in an economy. In the case of Colombia, the downward trend in the indicator is clear, which gives evidence of the lower relative use of this factor in productive tasks.

Water quality and contamination

In Colombia, decree 1575 of 2007 defines as drinking water or water suitable for human consumption, that which, due to its physical, chemical and microbiological characteristics, does not represent risks to human health in direct consumption (direct drinking, food preparation or personal hygiene) [16]. In that order of ideas, from 2009 to 2017 the percentage of the population connected to treated water grew from 84.7% to 92.4%.

Land use, agriculture and fishing

For developing countries, building a strong agricultural sector is key to achieving more sustainable growth paths, participating more actively in international trade, achieving soil sustainability, and managing watersheds. However, the use of pesticides, although it represents a greater intensity of productive activities, also affects water quality and terrestrial and agricultural biodiversity. In the case of Colombia, the use of pesticides increased between 1997 and 2008, reaching a maximum value of 152 kg per hectare in 2000, this indicator is located at 36.6 kg in 2017.

Fertilizers, on the other hand, show a growing trend for the period 2012-2017, however, it is important to note that nitrogen and phosphates contribute to soil acidification, water pollution and biodiversity losses, for this reason, its use should be regulated to avoid harmful effects on the environment. Graph 15 shows the behavior of the variable.

Environmental biodiversity and soil degradation

The environmental categories are undoubtedly one of the most relevant parts in the construction of a sustainability index. For this reason, its adequate behavior reflects a better dynamic on the part of this variable. Thus, in the case of the total number of species found on the red list, although it was not possible for Colombia to determine a trend in said variable, for the year 2018, 452 were found among mammals, plants and birds. The felling of forests, measured as the number of hectares deforested annually, went from 2.6 million in 1990 to 197, 159 in 2018.

Finally, terrestrial areas are fully or partially protected areas of at least 1000 hectares taking in account as scientific reserves with limited public access, different natural parks and protected landscapes. Areas managed for sustainable use. Over time, both land and sea areas have grown substantially, representing 15.7% of the national territory in 2018.

Result analysis

Based on the results obtained, coal is increasing due to the increase in the level of production; waste shows growth due to consumerism; the country's freshwater reserves are increasingly diminishing; in the use of the land, the level of fertilizers and pesticides are greatly affecting; addition to the felling of trees and change in biodiversity due to new construction and exploration.

After the individual analysis of the different indicators of environmental sustainability, it is important to make an aggregate diagnosis based on the results of Table 2, in this way, of the 23 indicators analyzed, 5 do not have trend information as required by the analysis, of the remaining 18, 38.9% showed growth in absolute value greater than 1% (Green), 27.8% are on the yellow scale and 33.3% are under the red indicator. It should be noted that these percentages are obtained based on the behavior of the indicator in the last year. However, when performing the same analysis taking the average annual growth as a reference, the results are different: green 77.8%, yellow 5.6% and red 16.7%.

These results indicate a favorable behavior on the part of the sustainability index in the country, which evidences the efforts of the government in the different work blocks, as well as the alignment of the institutions to face all the variables. However, special care must be taken with the variables of: Intensive use of electricity in economic activities, Total greenhouse gas emissions (kt of CO₂) and fertilizer consumption.

Regarding the intensive use of electricity for economic activities, the country has been developing an aggressive proposal that seeks to create wind farms on the Caribbean coast of the country, if an operation is achieved in 50% of the usable area of La Guajira, it could generate 90% of the installed electricity generation capacity in the country and leave behind the dependence on traditional energy sources.

In the case of greenhouse gas emissions, Colombia contributes 0.46% of the global value [15], a value that could double by 2030. For this reason, designing a method that allows acting in the matter becomes an immediate target. In this order of ideas, the Colombian Low Carbon Development Strategy (ECDBC), which is a short, medium, and long-term development planning program led by the Government and which has the support of the National Planning Department and the Sectorial Ministries, proposes more than 100 sectoral mitigation options within the framework of the Paris Agreement, thus managing to define specific controls on this problem and improving environmental quality.

Finally, regarding the last variable, which is the consumption of fertilizers, although the trend was growing until 2017, it is difficult to reverse this variable, given how little technology is agriculture in the country.

As an additional element of discussion, it is relevant to comment that the methodology proposed in this study has components that could be adapted to those proposed by Cortés-León and Gutiérrez-Fernández [16]. This identifies, similar to the current study, the review of international, national and specific indicators. As an additional consideration to the methodology, the selection of indicators is proposed through the method of weights by average [17] panel of experts [18] and the use of the Delphi method. As future research, the consolidation of the model is proposed through its implementation in a longer period of time for its subsequent validation in order to support decision-making in sustainable development policies [19].