Investigating the Flood Responsiveness of Small and Medium Enterprises Using Agent- Based Modelling and Simulation

Investigating the Flood Responsiveness of Small and Medium Enterprises Using Agent- Based Modelling and Simulation

G. Coates C. Li N.G. Wright S. Ahilan 

Institute of Geography, Slovak Academy of Sciences, Bratislava, Slovakia

Page: 
627-635
|
DOI: 
https://doi.org/10.2495/SAFE-V6-N3-627-635
Received: 
N/A
| |
Accepted: 
N/A
| | Citation

OPEN ACCESS

Abstract: 

In recent years, flooding has caused major damage and disruption to businesses in the United Kingdom (UK) resulting in significant losses to the economy. The effect of flooding on Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) is of particular importance given this size of business represents a major component of the UK’s economy. More specifically, according to the UK’s Department for Business Innovation and Skills, SMEs account for 99.9% of all private sector businesses and approximately 47% of annual turnover. In contrast to large businesses, SMEs often have limited resources and in most cases lack business continuity plans, which diminishes the effectiveness and efficiency of their response to flooding. This paper presents an overview of an approach taken to agent-based modelling and simulation of manufacturing SMEs experiencing a flood event, and related organisations. In this overview, the sources used to develop the attributes and behaviour of SMEs are highlighted. In addition, the paper presents preliminary results of simulations of the behaviours and actions of manufacturing SMEs in response to the 2007 flood event in the Lower Don Valley region of Sheffield in the UK. Results include key performance metrics of SMEs which provide an indication of the effectiveness and efficiency of the response of the businesses modelled.

Keywords: 

agent-based modelling and simulation, flooding, small businesses

  References

[1] APFM (Associated Programme on Flood Management), Integrated Flood Management, APFM technical document no. 1, 2nd edn., World Meteorological Organization and Global Water Partnership: Geneva, 2004.

[2] Lamond, J.E., Proverbs, D.G. & Hammond, F.N., Accessibility of flood risk insurance in the UK: confusion, competition and complacency. Journal of Risk Research, 12(6), pp. 825–841, 2009. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13669870902768614

[3] Thieken, A.H., Petrow, T., Kreibich, H. & Merz, B., Insurability and mitigation of flood losses in private households in Germany. Risk Analysis, 26(2), pp. 383–395, 2006. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2006.00741.x

[4] Thieken, A.H., Kreibich, H., Müller, M. & Merz, B., Coping with floods: preparedness, response and recovery of flood-affected residents in Germany in 2002. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 52(5), pp. 1016–1037, 2007. http://dx.doi.org/10.1623/hysj.52.5.1016

[5] Siegrist, M. & Gutscher, H., Natural hazards and motivation for mitigation behavior: people cannot predict the affect evoked by a severe flood. Risk Analysis, 28(3), pp. 771–778, 2008. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2008.01049.x

[6] Holub, M. & Fuchs, S., Mitigating mountain hazards in Austria: Legislation, risk transfer, and awareness building. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 9(2), pp. 523–537, 2009. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-9-523-2009

[7] Johnstone, W.M. & Lence, B.J., Assessing the value of mitigation strategies in reducing the impacts of rapid-onset, catastrophic floods. Journal of Flood Risk Management, 2(3), pp. 209–221, 2009. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1753-318X.2009.01035.x

[8] Michel-Kerjan, E. & Kunreuther, H., Redesigning flood insurance. Science, 333(6041), pp. 408–409, 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1202616

[9] Slovak Insurance Association. Insurance products on the Slovak insurance market, 2015. Online [in Slovak], avaliable at https://www.slaspo.sk/tmp/asset_cache/ link/0000048299/RS%20SLASPO%202013%20-%20kapitola%20D%20-%20SJ.pdf

[10] Slovak Insurance Association, Annual Report 2013. Chapter D: Slovak Insurance Market in 2013, 2014. Online [in Slovak], available at https://www.slaspo.sk/tmp/ asset_cache/link/0000048267/Poistne%20produkty%20na%20SK%20poistnom%20 trhu%20k%203103%202014%20na%20web%20stranku.pdf

[11] Solín, Ľ., Madajová, M. & Skubinčan, P., Mitigating flood consequences: analysis of private flood insurance in the Slovakia. Journal of Flood Risk Management, DOI: 10.1111/jfr3.12191, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12191

[12] Madajová, M., Solín, Ľ. & Michálek, A., Vývoj a priestorová variabilita poistenia obyvateľstva proti riziku povodne na Slovensku v období 2002 – 2011. Ekonomický časopis, 63(2), pp. 167–187, 2015.

[13] Ward, R.C. & Robinson, M., Principles of Hydrology, 3rd edn., McGraw-Hill Book Company: London, 1990.

[14] Smith, K. & Ward, R., Floods: Physical Processes and Human Impacts, John Wiley & Sons: Chichester, 1998.

[15] Chow, V.T., Hydrologic studies of floods in the United States. International Association of Scientific Hydrological Publications, 42, pp. 134–170, 1956.

[16] Ward, R.C., Floods: A Geographical Perspective, Macmillan: London, 1978.

[17] Act No. 71/2015, Amendment to the Act Flood Protection No. 7/2010, Slovakia [in Slovak].

[18] Act No. 7/2010, Act on Flood Protection No. 7/2010, Slovakia [in Slovak].