OPEN ACCESS
This article considers risk models related to disasters of complex engineering systems. It is proposed to include parameters of system vulnerability, survivability and security into risk models. Types of risk function for different disaster mechanisms are discussed. It is shown that the risk functions may have both exponential and power mode peculiarity. The mechanism of transformation of the exponential distribution into power mode (Pareto) distribution is determined.
Disaster, engineering systems, failure processes, probabilistic model, risk function
[1] Perrow, Ch., Normal Accidents: Living with High-Risk Technologies, Basic Books: N.Y., pp.386, 1999.
[2] Henley, E. & Kumamoto, H.,Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Management for Engineers and Scientists, Wiley-IEEE Press, pp. 597, 1996.
[3] Lepikhin, A., A Critical Look at Risk Analysis of Disasters, Risk Analysis VII & Brownfields V. WIT Press, pp. PI-59–PI-67, 2010.
[4] Lepikhin A., Moskvichev V. & Cherniaev A., Risk Analysis of the Technical Systems, Nauka: Novosibirsk, pp. 173, 2003.
[5] Malinetskiy, G.G. & Potapov, A.B., Contemporary Problems of the Non-linear Dynamics, Editorial URSS: Moscow, pp. 360, 2002.
[6] Shyshkin, V.M., Power Mode Distribution and Risk Management of Critical Systems, Writings ISA RAS, Vol. 31, pp. 42–63, 2007.